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Statistical modeling of stochastic consumption imbalances for the four bidding areas in Sweden
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (EECS).
2019 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

The Nordic power system is a synchronous power grid where there alwaysneeds to be balance between electricity consumption and production to keepthe frequency at the nominal value of 50 Hz. The Swedish transmission systemoperator (TSO) Svenska kraftnät (Svk) is responsible for maintaining balancein Sweden. In case of an imbalance, Svk has purchased frequency reserves tostop and restore the frequency to normal operation. In this project, an imbalanceis defined as the difference between measured electricity power volumesand trades.This master thesis has been made in partnership with Svenska kraftnät duringthe spring 2019, with the aim to develop a model with focus on stochastic consumptionimbalance and thereby be able to better predict future imbalances.A common method for the project has been developed together with anothermaster student doing his master thesis about wind power imbalances at Svk.The method has been applied to both of the subjects.The results show that it is possible to capture the defined behaviour of thestochastic imbalances to some extent, and also to scale the imbalances for predictingfuture imbalances. Trends of the stochastic imbalances are predictedto be stable and quite constant for the years 2019-2023 according to the results.

Abstract [sv]

Det nordiska kraftsystemet är ett synkront kraftnät där det alltid behöver varabalans mellan elförbrukning och elproduktion för att hålla frekvensen på nominelltvärde på 50 Hz. Den svenska transmissionssystemoperatören (TSO)Svenska kraftnät (Svk) ansvarar för att upprätthålla balans i Sverige. Vid obalanshar Svk köpt frekvensreserver för att återställa frekvensen till normal drift.I detta projekt definieras en obalans som skillnaden mellan uppmätta volymeroch handelsvolymer.Detta examensarbete har gjorts i samarbete med Svenska kraftnät under våren2019, med målet att utveckla en modell med fokus på stokastisk konsumtionsobalansoch därmed bättre kunna förutsäga framtida obalanser. En gemensammetod för projektet har utvecklats tillsammans med en annan masterstudentsom gjort sitt examensarbete om vindkraftsobalanser på Svk. Metoden har använtsför båda projekten.Resultaten visar att det är möjligt att fånga det definierade beteendet hos denskapade modellen, och även att skala obalansen för att förutsäga framtida obalanser.Trender för de stokastiska obalanserna förutspås vara stabila och konstantaför åren 2019-2023 enligt resultaten.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. , p. 69
Series
TRITA-EECS-EX ; 2019:626
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-263869OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-263869DiVA, id: diva2:1370896
External cooperation
Svenska Kraftnät
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2019-11-18 Created: 2019-11-18 Last updated: 2019-11-18Bibliographically approved

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