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Inefficient Use of Competitors' Forecasts?
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics. Uppsala Universitet.
2019 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This paper assesses to what extent forecasters make effcient use of competitors' forecasts. Usinga panel of forecasters, I find that forecasters underuse information from their competitors in their forecasts for current and next year's annual GDP growth and inflation. The results also show that forecasters increase the attention to their competitors as the forecast horizon decreases. In a model of noisy information with fixed target forecasts, I confirm the empirical results of underuse of competitors' information. I also extend the model to include a revision cost and show how this can explain the observed ineffciency and observed horizon dynamics. Using the same model framework, I also rule out overconfidence as the main explanation of the observed behavior.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala University, 2019. , p. 29
Series
Working paper / Department of Economics, Uppsala University (Online), ISSN 1653-6975 ; 2019:9
Keywords [en]
Forecast Behavior, Efficiency, Revision Cost, Forecast Smoothing, Overconfidence
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-395740OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-395740DiVA, id: diva2:1365096
Available from: 2019-10-23 Created: 2019-10-23 Last updated: 2019-10-23Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf