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Investigating Stochastic Differential Equations Modelling for Levodopa Infusion in Patients with Parkinson's Disease
Dalarna University, School of Technology and Business Studies, Microdata Analysis.
Dalarna University, School of Technology and Business Studies, Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3183-3756
Dalarna University, School of Technology and Business Studies, Statistics.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1057-5401
Dalarna University, School of Technology and Business Studies, Computer Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0403-338X
2019 (English)In: European journal of drug metabolism and pharmacokinetics, ISSN 0378-7966, E-ISSN 2107-0180Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Levodopa concentration in patients with Parkinson's disease is frequently modelled with ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Here, we investigate a pharmacokinetic model of plasma levodopa concentration in patients with Parkinson's disease by introducing stochasticity to separate the intra-individual variability into measurement and system noise, and to account for auto-correlated errors. We also investigate whether the induced stochasticity provides a better fit than the ODE approach.

METHODS: In this study, a system noise variable is added to the pharmacokinetic model for duodenal levodopa/carbidopa gel (LCIG) infusion described by three ODEs through a standard Wiener process, leading to a stochastic differential equations (SDE) model. The R package population stochastic modelling (PSM) was used for model fitting with data from previous studies for modelling plasma levodopa concentration and parameter estimation. First, the diffusion scale parameter (σw), measurement noise variance, and bioavailability are estimated with the SDE model. Second, σw is fixed to certain values from 0 to 1 and bioavailability is estimated. Cross-validation was performed to compare the average root mean square errors (RMSE) of predicted plasma levodopa concentration.

RESULTS: Both the ODE and the SDE models estimated bioavailability to be approximately 75%. The SDE model converged at different values of σw that were significantly different from zero. The average RMSE for the ODE model was 0.313, and the lowest average RMSE for the SDE model was 0.297 when σw was fixed to 0.9, and these two values are significantly different.

CONCLUSIONS: The SDE model provided a better fit for LCIG plasma levodopa concentration by approximately 5.5% in terms of mean percentage change of RMSE.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019.
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Complex Systems – Microdata Analysis
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:du-30962DOI: 10.1007/s13318-019-00580-wPubMedID: 31595429Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85074493836OAI: oai:DiVA.org:du-30962DiVA, id: diva2:1361388
Available from: 2019-10-16 Created: 2019-10-16 Last updated: 2019-12-06

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Saqlain, MurshidAlam, MoududRönnegård, LarsWestin, Jerker
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