Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Implications of existing local (mal)adaptations for ecological forecasting under environmental change
Lund Univ, Ctr Environm & Climate Res, Solvegatan 37, S-22362 Lund, Sweden;Univ Reading, Sch Biol Sci, Reading, Berks, England.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Biology, Department of Ecology and Genetics, Animal ecology. Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Biology, Department of Ecology and Genetics, Evolutionary Biology.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0196-6109
2019 (English)In: Evolutionary Applications, ISSN 1752-4571, E-ISSN 1752-4571, Vol. 12, no 7, p. 1487-1502Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Standing genetic variation represents a genetic load on population fitness but can also support a rapid response to short-term environmental change, and the greatest potential source of such standing genetic variation typically exists among locally adapted populations living along an environmental gradient. Here, we develop a spatially explicit simulation model to quantify the contribution of existing genetic variation arising from migration-mutation-selection-drift balance to time to extinction under environmental change. Simulations reveal that local adaptation across a species range associated with an underlying environmental gradient could extend time to extinction by nearly threefold irrespective of the rate of environmental change. The potential for preadapted alleles to increase the rate of adaptation changes the relative importance of established extinction risk factors; in particular, it reduced the importance of the breadth of environmental tolerance and it increased the relative importance of fecundity. Although migration of preadapted alleles generally increased persistence time, it decreased it at rates of environmental change close to the critical rate of change by creating a population bottleneck, which ultimately limited the rate at which de novo mutations could arise. An analysis of the extinction dynamics further revealed that one consequence of gene flow is the potential to maximize population growth rate in at least part of the species range, which is likely to have consequences for forecasting the consequences of ecological interactions. Our study shows that predictions of persistence time change fundamentally when existing local adaptations are explicitly taken into account, underscoring the need to preserve and manage genetic diversity.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
WILEY , 2019. Vol. 12, no 7, p. 1487-1502
Keywords [en]
adaptation, assisted migration, climate change, conservation biology, ecological forecasting, evolutionary rescue, gene flow
National Category
Evolutionary Biology Genetics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-393623DOI: 10.1111/eva.12840ISI: 000480580300019PubMedID: 31417629OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-393623DiVA, id: diva2:1354825
Available from: 2019-09-26 Created: 2019-09-26 Last updated: 2019-09-26Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(1428 kB)30 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 1428 kBChecksum SHA-512
5499e972de42a64ec22fa76d3d8cebfd0d161d473abf6f2054026d3c8eb2b582ef3087e71055ccd8f187001374d755491b109aeb5d4dd0b17c8ccce26c6e5b02
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Other links

Publisher's full textPubMed

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Berger, David
By organisation
Animal ecologyEvolutionary Biology
In the same journal
Evolutionary Applications
Evolutionary BiologyGenetics

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 30 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn
Total: 28 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf