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Risker på en föränderlig nyproduktionsmarknad ur tre perspektiv: byggherrar, kommuner och bostadsköpare
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Real Estate and Construction Management.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Real Estate and Construction Management.
2018 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [sv]

Since the financial crisis in 2008 housing prices in the greater Stockholm region have beenrising by an average of 8 percent per year and therefor municipalities, developers andbuyers of new production housing have been able to make high profit. This has lead to astrong optimism and a high risk propensity among several parties. Since august 2017 thehousing market have turned and housing prices have declined. The reasons are believed tobe an overproduction of expensive new housing, media’s negative view on the newproduction market and tightened amortization requirements. The immediate effect was a biguncertainty regarding the market for new housing and cautious residential consumers. Thehousing developers reports low sales the first quarter of 2018 and some developers areforced to return land allocations to the municipalities.This degree project aims to describe the risk that occurs in the process of developing newhousing. It will be done through a qualitative interview study which aims to closer examinethe municipalities and developers view on the housing market, the risks that occur in thedeveloping process and their risk management strategies. The purpose of the report is alsoto identify the risks that are imposed on buyers of new housing, which is done throughinterviews with developers and new production brokers.The study shows that developers and municipalities are facing a difficult time when it comesto making agreements in today's uncertain housing market and the distrust between theparties can be derived from adverse selection. Due to the development monopoly manymunicipalities benefits a strong negotiation position. At the same time the participatingmunicipalities are in a difficult situation due to their agreement with the state and theStockholm County Council regarding 64 000 new homes by the year of 2030.The degree project emphasizes the possibility that by adjusting an existing price indexformula, land prices will be more closely linked to housing prices. The purpose of thisformula in a market fall is to allow a larger proportion of housing prices to be deducted fromthe land price for the developers and that in a market upturn the municipality will be able totake a larger cut of the higher housing prices. The ambition is that this will facilitatenegotiations between the municipality and the developer and make the developers moreresistant in a changing new production market.

Abstract [en]

Since the financial crisis in 2008 housing prices in the greater Stockholm region have beenrising by an average of 8 percent per year and therefor municipalities, developers andbuyers of new production housing have been able to make high profit. This has lead to astrong optimism and a high risk propensity among several parties. Since august 2017 thehousing market have turned and housing prices have declined. The reasons are believed tobe an overproduction of expensive new housing, media’s negative view on the newproduction market and tightened amortization requirements. The immediate effect was a biguncertainty regarding the market for new housing and cautious residential consumers. Thehousing developers reports low sales the first quarter of 2018 and some developers areforced to return land allocations to the municipalities.This degree project aims to describe the risk that occurs in the process of developing newhousing. It will be done through a qualitative interview study which aims to closer examinethe municipalities and developers view on the housing market, the risks that occur in thedeveloping process and their risk management strategies. The purpose of the report is alsoto identify the risks that are imposed on buyers of new housing, which is done throughinterviews with developers and new production brokers.The study shows that developers and municipalities are facing a difficult time when it comesto making agreements in today's uncertain housing market and the distrust between theparties can be derived from adverse selection. Due to the development monopoly manymunicipalities benefits a strong negotiation position. At the same time the participatingmunicipalities are in a difficult situation due to their agreement with the state and theStockholm County Council regarding 64 000 new homes by the year of 2030.The degree project emphasizes the possibility that by adjusting an existing price indexformula, land prices will be more closely linked to housing prices. The purpose of thisformula in a market fall is to allow a larger proportion of housing prices to be deducted fromthe land price for the developers and that in a market upturn the municipality will be able totake a larger cut of the higher housing prices. The ambition is that this will facilitatenegotiations between the municipality and the developer and make the developers moreresistant in a changing new production market.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2018. , p. 48
Series
TRITA-ABE-MBT ; 18320
Keywords [en]
Risk, land development, land allocation, building rights, new housing
Keywords [sv]
Risk, markexploatering, markanvisning, byggrätt, nyproduktion
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-260084OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-260084DiVA, id: diva2:1354543
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Available from: 2019-09-25 Created: 2019-09-25 Last updated: 2019-09-25Bibliographically approved

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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
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  • de-DE
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  • en-US
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  • nn-NB
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  • Other locale
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Output format
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