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Går det att förutspå framtiden med hjälp av aktieutdelning?: Resultat och lönsamhet på Nasdaq Stockholm över 20 år
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Business Studies.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Business Studies.
2019 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Can dividend changes help us predict the future? : Earnings and profitability on Nasdaq Stockholm over the last 20 years (English)
Abstract [sv]

Inom finansiell ekonomi finns en seglivad teori om att utdelningsändringar innehåller information om framtida ekonomiska resultat. Aktiemarknaden reagerar i enlighet med teorin på så vis att aktiekursen stiger när utdelningen höjs, och tvärtom, vilket har dokumenterats i ett flertal studier. Bakom aktiemarknadens reaktion på den ändrade utdelningen borde det finnas ett positivt samband mellan utdelningsändringar och framtida ekonomiska resultat. Problemet är att förekomsten av ett sådant samband är högst tveksam; tidigare empiriska studier har trots flerfaldiga försök inte funnit övertygande argument för förekomsten av ett samband mellan utdelningsändringar och framtida ekonomiska resultat.

Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka om det finns ett positiv samband mellan utdelningsändringar och framtida resultat och lönsamhet. Det empiriska underlaget är företag på Nasdaq Stockholm under perioden 1999–2018. Sambandet eftersöks med hjälp av en regressionsmodell i vilken vi kontrollerar för det icke-linjära beteendeet hos resultat och lönsamhet. Vi finner ett par statistiskt signifikanta resultat som påvisar samband mellan sänkta utdelningar och framtida resultat och lönsamhet; dessa är dock så pass små att de saknar ekonomisk relevans. Vårt resultat är således i linje med tidigare empiriska studier och stödjer därmed inte teori om utdelningssignalering.

Abstract [en]

Within the area of corporate finance, there exists a persistent theory that revolves around the idea that changes in terms of corporate dividend may yield information regarding future financial results. The stock market is known to fluctuate in accordance with this theory by ways of indicating increased share prices in close correspondence to increased dividend, and vice versa, which has also been documented in several previous studies. This relation between the stock market’s reaction to the change in dividend should by all accounts point to a positive correlation between dividend changes and future financial results. Yet, this relation has to this point been proved to be highly doubtful. Previous empirical studies have not been able to find any convincing arguments that such a relationship exists.

The purpose of this essay is to investigate if there in fact exists a relationship between dividend changes and future earnings and profitability. The empirical data for this study consists of the companies listed on the Nasdaq Stockholm during the period of 1999 to 2018. This proposed relationship has been investigated by the use of a regression model, in which we have examined the known non-linear behaviour of earnings and profitability. By this method we have found a few results of statistical significance that do seem to indicate a relation, between lowered dividend and future financial outcomes. However, while still statistically significant, these results are not economically significant. Our results are therefore considered to be in line with previous research and does not offer any further support for the proposed theory of the dividend signaling hypothesis.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. , p. 42
Keywords [en]
Behavioral finance, Corporate finance, Dividends, Dividend signaling hypothesis
Keywords [sv]
Aktieutdelning, Beteendeekonomi, Finansiell ekonomi, Utdelningssignalering
National Category
Business Administration
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-393089OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-393089DiVA, id: diva2:1351574
Subject / course
Business Studies
Educational program
Bachelor Programme in Business Studies
Presentation
2019-06-07, 11:45
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2019-09-20 Created: 2019-09-16 Last updated: 2019-09-20Bibliographically approved

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