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Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
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2019 (English)In: Environment International, ISSN 0160-4120, E-ISSN 1873-6750, Vol. 131, article id 105027Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010-2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (-0.92%p/°C) and Australia (-0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2019. Vol. 131, article id 105027
Keywords [en]
Climate change, Mortality, Projection, Regional variation, Vulnerability
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-162419DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027PubMedID: 31351381OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-162419DiVA, id: diva2:1344093
Available from: 2019-08-20 Created: 2019-08-20 Last updated: 2019-08-22Bibliographically approved

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Orru, HansForsberg, BertilÅström, Christofer
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