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Impact of Interest Rate Increase on Stockholm’s Households
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Real Estate and Construction Management.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Real Estate and Construction Management.
2019 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Räntehöjnings påverkan på Stockholms hushåll (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

The housing prices have increased in a rapid pace in Stockholm the past decades. Simultaneously, the interest rates have decreased drastically, since the global financial crisis in 2008. The two movements combined have led to higher debt among Swedish households and especially in the capital, Stockholm. This article presents a quantitative research investigating which types of households, based on their social economic profile, will be mostly affected by an increased mortgage rate. The DSR is calculated for each HH, taking in account the amortization regulations introduced in 2016 and 2018. By doing a regression analysis using the DSR as the dependent variable and the socioeconomic factors as independent variables, we find that income and age are the variables with highest significance describing the DSR. Additionally, we investigate the socioeconomic profile of those households that have the highest DSR increment, based on specific cluster made by Insightone. The findings of the paper suggest that four out of 44 types of families have exceptionally higher exposure to the two different mortgage-rate increase scenarios. Three of these four family clusters are young, have children, high income and lives in houses. The remaining family cluster is young, have no children, has low income but is highly educated.

Abstract [sv]

Bostadspriserna har ökat snabbt de senaste åren i Stockholm. Samtidigt har räntan sjunkit jämfört med de nivåerna som var under finanskrisen 2008. Dessa två faktorer kombinerade med varandra har lett till högra bolån bland det svenska folket och främst för de som bor i Stockholm. Denna artikel är en kvantitativ studie som undersöker vilka typer av hushåll baserad på deras socioekonomiska profil som påverkas mest av en ökad bolåneränta. Först räknade vi ut skuldsättningsgrad för varje hushåll. I dessa beräkningar tog vi hänsyn till de nya amorteringskraven som har införts från 206 och framåt. Därefter gjorde vi en regressionsanalys där vårt resultat blev att inkomst, ålder och amortering är de faktorer som påverkar skuldsättningsgrad mest. Senare undersöker vi hur den typiska familjen ser ut där resultatet blev att unga, utan barn, låg inkomst och högutbildade är de som påverkas mest av en ökad bolåneränta.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. , p. 63
Series
TRITA-ABE-MBT ; 19171
Keywords [en]
Mortgage rate, interest rate, HHs, debt service ratio, Stockholm
Keywords [sv]
Bolåneränta, ränta, hushåll, debt service ratio, Stockholm
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-256005OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-256005DiVA, id: diva2:1343050
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Available from: 2019-08-15 Created: 2019-08-15 Last updated: 2019-09-25Bibliographically approved

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