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Modelling an optimum vaccination strategy against ZIKA virus for outbreak use
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Epidemiology and Global Health. Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Medicine.
2019 (English)In: Epidemiology and Infection, ISSN 0950-2688, E-ISSN 1469-4409, Vol. 147, article id UNSP e196Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We present a model to optimise a vaccination campaign aiming to prevent or to curb a Zika virus outbreak. We show that the optimum vaccination strategy to reduce the number of cases by a mass vaccination campaign should start when the Aedes mosquitoes' density reaches the threshold of 1.5 mosquitoes per humans, the moment the reproduction number crosses one. The maximum time it is advisable to wait for the introduction of a vaccination campaign is when the first ZIKV case is identified, although this would not be as effective to minimise the number of infections as when the mosquitoes' density crosses the critical threshold. This suboptimum strategy, however, would still curb the outbreak. In both cases, the catch up strategy should aim to vaccinate at least 25% of the target population during a concentrated effort of 1 month immediately after identifying the threshold. This is the time taken to accumulate the herd immunity threshold of 56.5%. These calculations were done based on theoretical assumptions that vaccine implementation would be feasible within a very short time frame.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS , 2019. Vol. 147, article id UNSP e196
Keywords [en]
Control strategies, mathematical models, vaccines, Zika virus
National Category
Infectious Medicine
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-162026DOI: 10.1017/S0950268819000712ISI: 000475912200127PubMedID: 31364534OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-162026DiVA, id: diva2:1341572
Available from: 2019-08-09 Created: 2019-08-09 Last updated: 2019-08-09Bibliographically approved

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