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An Econometric Analysis of the Office Market Rent in Istanbul: Long-run Equilibrium Rent Estimation
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Real Estate and Construction Management.
2019 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
En ekonometrisk analys av kontorsmarknadshyrorna i Istanbul : Långsiktiga jämviktslägen uppskattning (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

The Istanbul metropolitan area is the largest office investment made in Turkey. According to the CBRE ERIX data, the total office stock in Istanbul by the end of 2018 exceeded 7 million sqm. There is approximately 1 million sqm of pipeline figures. The biggest problem for office projects which in the hold-on status and under construction status, Turkey's economy is rapidly affecting office rents and tenants of office the selection criteria. In particular, high financing costs and construction costs increase the importance of predicting the rent figures in office investments. This degree project aims at contributing to the understanding of the Istanbul rental office market underlying mechanisms. The office market data will be analyzed between Q1 2005-Q4 2018 period. Long-term equilibrium rents will be reached for the Istanbul office market and examined sub-markets. With the econometric analysis method, the long-term causality for rent with employment, stock and vacancy will be examined. Short-term estimates will be made with an error correction model.

Abstract [sv]

Istanbuls storstadsområde är den största kontorsinvesteringen i Turkiet. Enligt CBRE ERIX-data översteg det totala kontorslagret i Istanbul i slutet av 2018 7 miljoner kvm. Det finns cirka 1 miljon kvm rörledningsfigurer. Det största problemet för kontorsprojekt som i fasthållningsstatus och under byggnadsstatus, påverkar Turkiets ekonomi snabbt kontoruthyrningar och hyresgäster i urvalskriterierna. Höga finansieringskostnader och byggkostnader ökar i synnerhet vikten av att förutsäga hyrestalterna i kontorsinvesteringar. Detta examensarbete syftar till att bidra till förståelsen av de underliggande mekanismerna för hyreskontor i Istanbul. Kontorsmarknadsdata analyseras mellan F1 2005-F4 2018 perioden. Långsiktiga jämviktshyror kommer att nås för Istanbul-kontorsmarknaden och undersökta delmarknader. Med den ekonometriska analysmetoden kommer den långsiktiga orsaken till uthyrning med sysselsättning, lager och ledighet att undersökas. Kortfristiga uppskattningar kommer att göras med en felkorrigeringsmodell.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. , p. 66
Series
TRITA-ABE-MBT ; 19143
Keywords [en]
Istanbul office market, equilibrium rent, error correction model, long-run rent estimation
Keywords [sv]
Istanbul kontorsmarknaden, jämviktshyra, felkorrigeringsmodell, långsiktig hyra uppskattning
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-254731OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-254731DiVA, id: diva2:1335012
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2019-08-13 Created: 2019-07-03 Last updated: 2019-09-25Bibliographically approved

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