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Time on market: En studie om en ny indikator påbostadsmarknaden
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Real Estate and Construction Management.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Real Estate and Construction Management.
2019 (Swedish)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Time on Market : A Study Regarding a New Indicator on the Housing Market (English)
Abstract [sv]

Bostadsmarknaden i Stockholm har sedan finanskrisen 2008 befunnit sig i en skönhetshistoria medstigande priser och korta försäljningstider. Idag befinner sig bostadsmarknaden i allt annat än enskönhetshistoria, prisutvecklingen har stannat av, rekordmånga objekt finns ute till försäljning ochbostadsutvecklare väljer att avvakta med nya bostadsprojekt. Med anledning av utvecklingen påbostadsmarknaden syftar studien till att konstruera ett nytt index som baseras på time on market,försäljningstid. Vidare syftar studien till att utreda vilka effekter de utvalda makroekonomiskafaktorer har på time on market och om time-on-market-index kan användas för att förklarahusprisutvecklingen. Metoden i denna studie utgår från såväl ekonomiska teorier somekonometriska analyser. Genom tillämpningen av regressionsanalyser, utifrån tvärsnittsdata ochtidsseriedata, kan ett index konstrueras. Resultat visar att time on market för både småhus- ochbostadsrättsmarknaden har ett cykliskt mönster. Vidare visar resultatet att bostadsmarknadentidigare har befunnit sig i en dal, tid med låg time-on-market-värde, för att sedan stiga och slutligenvända nedåt. Time on market korrelerar med de utvalda faktorerna, arbetslöshet, omx30,bolåneränta för tre månader samt prisutveckling för bostäder. Studiens resultat indikerar att demakroekonomiska faktorerna har en viss eftersläpning i förhållande till index. Vidare visarresultatet att time-on-market-index endast kan användas som indikator för bostadsrättsmarknaden,då indexet visar utslag sex månader innan husprisutvecklingen.

Abstract [en]

The housing market in Stockholm has since the financial crisis in 2008 been remarkable with risingprices and short sales periods. Today the housing market is everything but remarkable. The pricetrend has stopped, record numbers of objects are out for sales and housing developers choose towait with new housing projects. Due to the changes in the housing market, the study aims toconstruct a new index based on time on market. The aim also includes investigating what effectsmacroeconomic factors have on time on market and if the time on market index can be used as anindicator to show the price development on the housing market.The method used in this study is based on both economic theories and econometric analysis.Through the application of regression analyzes, based on cross-sectional data and time series data,an index can be constructed. Results shows that time on market for both the house- and tenantownedmarket has a cyclical pattern. Furthermore, the results show that the housing market haspreviously been in a valley, with low time on market value, to then rise and finally turn downwards.Time on market correlates with the chosen macroeconomic factors being unemployment, omx30,mortgage rate and price development for housing. The results indicate that the macroeconomicfactors have a certain lag in relation to the time on market index. Moreover, the result shows thatthe time on market index can only be used as an indicator for the tenant-owned market, as itchanges six months before the price development on the housing market.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. , p. 64
Series
TRITA-ABE-MBT ; 19183
Keywords [en]
Time on market, Housing market, Macroeconomics, Index, Regression
Keywords [sv]
Time on market, Bostadsmarknad, Makroekonomi, Index, Regression
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-254724OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-254724DiVA, id: diva2:1334941
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Available from: 2019-08-13 Created: 2019-07-03 Last updated: 2019-09-25Bibliographically approved

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