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A Study on Comparison Websites in the Airline Industry and Using CART Methods to Determine Key Parameters in Flight Search Conversion
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
2019 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
En studie av jämförelsehemsidor i flygbranschen och tillämpningen av CART metoder för att analysera nyckelparametrar i konvertering av flygsökningar. (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

This bachelor thesis in applied mathematics and industrial engineering and management aimed to identify relationships between search parameters in flight comparison search engines and the exit conversion rate, while also investigating how the emergence of such comparison search engines has impacted the airline industry. To identify such relationships, several classification models were employed in conjunction with several sampling methods to produce a predictive model using the program R. To investigate the impact of the emergence of comparison websites, Porter's 5 forces and a SWOT - analysis were employed to analyze findings of a literature study and a qualitative interview. The classification models developed performed poorly with regards to several assessments metrics which suggested that there were little to no significance in the relationship between the search parameters investigated and exit conversion rate. Porter's 5 forces and the SWOT-analysis suggested that the competitive landscape of the airline industry has become more competitive and that airlines which do not manage to adapt to this changing market environment will experience decreasing profitability.

Abstract [sv]

Detta kandidatexamensarbete inriktat på tillämpad matematik och industriell ekonomi syftade till att identifiera samband mellan sökparametrar från flygsökmotorer och konverteringsgraden för utträde till ett flygbolags hemsida, och samtidigt undersöka hur uppkomsten av flygsökmotorer har påverkat flygindustrin för flygbolag. För att identifiera sådana samband, tillämpades flera klassificeringsmodeller tillsammans med stickprovsmetoder för att bygga en predikativ modell i programmet R. För att undersöka påverkan av flygsökmotorer tillämpades Porters 5 krafter och SWOT-analys som teoretiska ramverk för att analysera information uppsamlad genom en litteraturstudie och en intervju. Klassificeringsmodellerna som byggdes presterade undermåligt med avseende på flera utvärderingsmått, vilket antydde att det fanns lite eller inget samband mellan de undersökta sökparametrarna och konverteringsgraden för utträde. Porters 5 krafter och SWOT-analysen visade att flygindustrin hade blivit mer konkurrensutsatt och att flygbolag som inte lyckas anpassa sig efter en omgivning i ändring kommer att uppleva minskande lönsamhet.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019.
Series
TRITA-SCI-GRU ; 2019-171
Keywords [en]
True positives, true negatives, false positives, false negatives, Classification Trees, Random Forest, SMOTE, ROSE, ROC, AUC, LCC, meta-search engine, Online Travel Agency, Gini impurity index
Keywords [sv]
Sann negativ, sann positiv, falsk positiv, falsk negativ, klassificationsträd, Random Forest, SMOTE, ROSE, ROC, AUC, jämförelsehemsida, resebyrå, Gini koefficient
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-254309OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-254309DiVA, id: diva2:1334808
Subject / course
Applied Mathematics and Industrial Economics
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering - Industrial Engineering and Management
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2019-07-03 Created: 2019-07-03 Last updated: 2019-07-03Bibliographically approved

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