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Värdering av nordiska industribolag - en studie inom regressionsanalys
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
2019 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Valuation of Nordic Industrial Companies - a Study within Regression Analysis (English)
Abstract [sv]

I en företagstransaktion anlitas vanligen en investmentbank för att bistå med värdering av bolaget samt agera rådgivare. Investmentbanker agerar som en slag företagsmäklare som är antingen på köp- eller säljsidan av transaktionen. När bolagsvärdet presenteras i en pitch till säljarna brukar de använda sig av flera metoder för att beräkna värdet av företaget.

För att öka precisionen i värdering av ett nordiskt industribolag ställdes frågan om multipel regressionsanalys kunde användas som ett komplement i en bolagsvärdering och hur den stod sig gentemot en klassisk värderingsmetod som Precedent Transactions Analysis.

Dessa frågor kom att analyseras och besvarades genom att skapa en regressionsmodell som byggde på data hämtad från företagens finansiella rapporter. Den insamlade datan byggde på 132 transaktioner av nordiska industribolag under perioden 2009-2019. Regressionsmodellen kom sedan att jämföras mot en PTA-värdering som byggde på tidigare företagstransaktioner av bolag med liknande finansiell och affärsmässig bakgrund som bolaget i fråga skulle värderas.

Denna studie visar på att regressionsanalys kan användas som en komplement till de olika värderingsmetoderna men bör ej användas för att värdera nordiska industribolag med avhandlingens val av variabler och skall inte ersätta någon av de klassiska värderingsmetoderna.

Abstract [en]

Prior to a company being sold or acquired they usually contact an investment bank to support with the valuation of the company, execute the sale and act as advisors for the actors that wish to buy or sell. Investment banks acts as a kind of company broker which is either on the buy or the sell side. When the company value is presented, they usually utilize several methods to calculate the value of the company. During the last decade the frequency of transactions on the Nordic industry market have increased significantly.

To increase the precision in the valuation of a Nordic industrial company, the question was asked if multiple regression analysis could be used as a valuation method? Also, how did it compare itself against a classical valuation method like Precedent Transaction Analysis?

These questions came to be analyzed and answered by creating a regression modell built of data gathered from financial reports. The regression model then came to be compared to the PTA-valuation which built on previous company transactions with companies that were alike in financial background.

This study shows that regression analysis could be used as a complement to the different valuation methods. However the model should not be used to evaluate Nordic industrial companies with the choice of variables in the thesis, since the reliability of the model is unpredictable. Regression analysis as a stand-alone valuation method should be taken with great caution and not replace neither of the classical valuation methods.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019.
Series
TRITA-SCI-GRU ; 2019:158
Keywords [en]
Multiple linear regression, applied mathematics, valuation, finance
Keywords [sv]
Multipel linjär regression, tillämpad matematik, företagsvärdering, finansiering, industriell ekonomi
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-254278OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-254278DiVA, id: diva2:1334619
Subject / course
Applied Mathematics and Industrial Economics
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering - Industrial Engineering and Management
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2019-07-03 Created: 2019-07-03 Last updated: 2019-07-03Bibliographically approved

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