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Modelling the Impact of Drug Resistance on Treatment as Prevention as an HIV Control Strategy
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
2019 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Modellering av den inverkan läkemedelsresistans har på framgången för smittorisk-förebyggande behandling av HIV (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

Uganda is using a strategy called treatment as prevention where as many individuals as possible that are infected with HIV receive treatment. As a result, the number of newly infected individuals has decreased significantly. However, there is a discussion about a potential problem regarding transmitted drug resistance. This work aims to investigate if this in fact will be a problem in the future, and to estimate the costs for different scenarios. Through developing a population-based mathematical model that describes transmission dynamics of HIV in Uganda, stochastic simulations are made for different conditions. Through analysing our simulations, we can see that Uganda may have to change their approach to HIV treatment.

Abstract [sv]

För att minska smittoriskerna av HIV nyttjar Uganda en strategi som syftar till att behandla så många smittade personer som möjligt. Detta har lett till en signifikant minskning av antalet smittade personer. Det har dock uppstått en diskussion angående om läkemedels-resistent smitta kan komma att utgöra ett problem. Detta arbete syftar till att undersöka om detta kan utgöra ett problem i framtiden samt till att uppskatta de kostnader som kan uppstå i olika typer av scenarion. Under olika förutsättningar genomförs stokastiska simuleringar med hjälp av en matematisk populationsmodell framtagen för att beskriva spridningen av HIV i Uganda. Genom att analysera resultaten från olika simuleringar dras slutsatsen att Uganda kan behöva omvärdera sitt tillvägagångssätt gällande behandling av HIV.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019.
Series
TRITA-SCI-GRU ; 2019:155
Keywords [en]
Bachelor Thesis, Applied Mathematics, Stochastic Modelling, HIV, HIV Control Strategy, Resistance Profiling, Treatment as Prevention
Keywords [sv]
Kandidatexamensarbete, Tillämpad Matematik, Stokastisk Modellering, HIV, Smittorisk-förebyggande Behandling av HIV, Resistansprofilering
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-254237OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-254237DiVA, id: diva2:1334406
Subject / course
Applied Mathematics and Industrial Economics
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering - Industrial Engineering and Management
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2019-07-02 Created: 2019-07-02 Last updated: 2019-07-02Bibliographically approved

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