1. Timing of reproduction affects the outcome of interactions between plants and their pollinators, grazers and seed predators, as well as with their local abiotic environment. In seasonal environments, phenotypic selection has often been shown to favour early flowering. Yet, we still know little about the agents driving selection in natural populations and whether observed phenotypic selection corresponds to genotypic selection – a prerequisite for evolutionary change.

2. In this study, we experimentally assessed phenotypic and genotypic selection for flowering time in a natural population of the perennial herb Lathyrus vernus. We transplanted sibling individuals, obtained through controlled crosses, to their source population and found net phenotypic selection for earlier flowering in the field.

3. Despite a higher susceptibility to roe deer grazing, early‐flowering plants had higher fruit set and more seeds per fruit than late‐flowering plants. We found no support for genotypic selection on flowering time, and heritability for first flowering day was very low.

4. Synthesis: Our results suggest that commonly observed patterns of higher fitness in early‐flowering plants do not always correspond to selection on genotypic values and are thus not necessarily expected to result in evolutionary change even if the relationship between flowering time and fitness is causal. This finding should be important to understand how species phenology might respond to changing environmental conditions.

Temporal variation in natural selection has profound effects on the evolutionary trajectories of populations. One potential source of variation in selection is that differences in thermal reaction norms and temperature influence the relative phenology of interacting species. We manipulated the phenology of the butterfly herbivore Anthocharis cardamines relative to genetically identical populations of its host plant, Cardamine pratensis, and examined the effects on butterfly preferences and selection acting on the host plant. We found that butterflies preferred plants at an intermediate flowering stage, regardless of the timing of butterfly flight relative to flowering onset of the population. Consequently, the probability that plant genotypes differing in timing of flowering should experience a butterfly attack depended strongly on relative phenology. These results suggest that differences in spring temperature influence the direction of herbivore-mediated selection on flowering phenology, and that climatic conditions can influence natural selection also when phenotypic preferences remain constant.