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Konsten att förutspå valresultat: Prognostisera resultatet av det svenska riksdagsvalet 2018 baserat på vallokalsundersökningsdata
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics.
2019 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Exit polls have had a hard time predicting election results in Sweden over the last decade. The introduction of the Sweden Democrats in the political scene has generally caused problems for polling organizations. Opinion polls have a big influence on the economic market and therefore any wrongdoing might cause a big disturbance in the economy. This paper develops a model based on systematic sampling differences and sociodemographic background variables in order to predict the results of the Swedish general election 2018. The study uses data from SVT´s exit poll and SCB´s voter turnout survey. The results of the study show that the model in general predicts the 2018 Swedish general election better than the prognosis of SVT.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. , p. 29
Keywords [en]
Exit poll, Raking
Keywords [sv]
VALU, Riksdagsvalet 2018, Valdata, Politisk prediktion, Vallokalsundersökning
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-387323OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-387323DiVA, id: diva2:1328505
Subject / course
Statistics
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2019-06-24 Created: 2019-06-21 Last updated: 2019-06-24Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf