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Brexit: The predictors of a district majority vote
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics.
2019 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

In June 2016, the United Kingdom held its EU referendum, colloquially known as Brexit, in which the people of the island nation voted on whether their country should remain a member of or leave the European Union. This thesis investigates what economic variables may have lain behind the majority outcome of a given voting area (or district) and to what degree they may have impacted it. A logistic regression is conducted primarily on referendum and election data from the Electoral Commission, census data from the Office for National Statistics, and political leaning scores as quantified by the Manifesto Project. The resulting model, which exhibits a hit ratio of 92 percent correct predictions, shows that age, education, national identity, political leaning, irreligion, and unemployment have significant correlations with the majority Brexit outcome of a district. On the other hand, population, health, and income variables do not have statistically significant effects; however, poor health, on average, does seem to have a large positive effect on the odds when taking relative sample size into account.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. , p. 36
Keywords [en]
Brexit, EU referendum, logistic regression, economics
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-386045OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-386045DiVA, id: diva2:1326768
Subject / course
Statistics
Educational program
Bachelor Programme in Business and Economics
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2019-06-24 Created: 2019-06-18 Last updated: 2019-06-24Bibliographically approved

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fulltext 2019(485 kB)14 downloads
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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf