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Comparison of mortality rate forecasting using the Second Order Lee–Carter method with different mortality models
Mälardalen University, School of Education, Culture and Communication.
2019 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Mortality information is very important for national planning and health of a country. Mortality rate forecasting is a basic contribution for the projection of financial improvement of pension plans, well-being and social strategy planning. In the first part of the thesis, we fit the selected mortality rate models, namely the Power-exponential function based model, the ModifiedPerks model and the Heligman and Pollard (HP4) model to the data obtained from the HumanMortality Database [22] for the male population ages 1–70 of the USA, Japan and Australia. We observe that the Heligman and Pollard (HP4) model performs well and better fit the data as compared to the Power-exponential function based model and the Modified Perks model. The second part is to systematically compare the quality of the mortality rate forecasting using the second order Lee–Carter method with the selected mortality rate models. The results indicate that Power-exponential function based model and the Heligman and Pollard (HP4) model gives a more reliable forecast depending on individual countries.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. , p. 63
Keywords [en]
Mortality rate, Power-exponential function based model, Modified Perks model, Heligman and Pollard (HP4) model, Model fitting, Forecasting, Central death rate, Second order Lee–Carter method, Mortality indices, Comparison.
National Category
Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-43563OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mdh-43563DiVA, id: diva2:1319388
Subject / course
Mathematics/Applied Mathematics
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2019-05-31 Created: 2019-05-31 Last updated: 2019-05-31Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf