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Seasonal Drought Pattern Changes Due to Climate Variability: Case Study in Afghanistan
Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru, Malaysia.
Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru, Malaysia. Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Federal University Dutse, Dutse, Nigeria.
Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru, Malaysia. Faculty of Water Resource Management, Lasbela University of Agriculture, Water and Marine Sciences, Balochistan, Pakistan.
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2019 (English)In: Water, ISSN 2073-4441, E-ISSN 2073-4441, Vol. 11, no 5, p. 1-20, article id 1096Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We assessed the changes in meteorological drought severity and drought return periods during cropping seasons in Afghanistan for the period of 1901 to 2010. The droughts in the country were analyzed using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Global Precipitation Climatology Center rainfall and Climate Research Unit temperature data both at 0.5 resolutions were used for this purpose. Seasonal drought return periods were estimated using the values of the SPEI fitted with the best distribution function. Trends in climatic variables and SPEI were assessed using modified Mann–Kendal trend test, which has the ability to remove the influence of long-term persistence on trend significance. The study revealed increases in drought severity and frequency in Afghanistan over the study period. Temperature, which increased up to 0.14 C/decade, was the major factor influencing the decreasing trend in the SPEI values in the northwest and southwest of the country during rice- and corn-growing seasons, whereas increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall were the cause of a decrease in SPEI during wheat-growing season. We concluded that temperature plays a more significant role in decreasing the SPEI values and, therefore, more severe droughts in the future are expected due to global warming.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI, 2019. Vol. 11, no 5, p. 1-20, article id 1096
Keywords [en]
meteorological drought, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, climate
National Category
Geotechnical Engineering
Research subject
Soil Mechanics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-74035DOI: 10.3390/w11051096ISI: 000472680400226Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85066309455OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-74035DiVA, id: diva2:1318072
Note

Validerad;2019;Nivå 2;2019-06-10 (oliekm)

Available from: 2019-05-25 Created: 2019-05-25 Last updated: 2019-08-16Bibliographically approved

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