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Påverkan av kognitiva biaser på Försvarsmaktens systemanalysschema
Swedish Defence University.
2019 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (professional degree), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
The effect of cognitive bias on the Swedish Defense Force’s Systems analysis schedule (English)
Abstract [en]

This essay examines the presence of cognitive biases in governmental acquisitions of technical systems. The four examined biases are Prior hypotheses and focusing on limited targets, Exposure to limited alternatives, Insensitivity to outcome probabilities and Illusion of manageability. These were examined through a case study of systems purchases for governmental agencies.

The essay identified parts of Försvarsmaktens handbok i studiemetodik where the text was written in such a way where there was a risk of bias being present. These were identified through a qualitative text analysis and semi-structured interviews. Because of the presence of bias found in the text, a chapter dedicated to risk of bias was recommended, as well as certain amendments to the text to prohibit biased interpretations.

Abstract [sv]

Detta självständiga arbete granskar förekomsten av kognitiva bias, mentala feltänk, i myndighetsanskaffning av tekniska system. De fyra biaser som granskas är Prior hypotheses and focusing on limited targets, tidigare hypotes-bias, Exposure to limited alternatives, begränsade alternativ-bias, Insensitivity to outcome probabilities, okänslighet för sannolikhet-bias, och Illusion of manageability, illusion av hanterbarhet. Detta granskades i en fallstudie, där systeminköp för statliga myndigheter granskades.

Texten identifierade delar av Försvarsmaktens handbok i studiemetodik där den var skriven på ett sådant sätt att dessa biaser kunde förekomma. Dessa identifierades genom en kvalitativ textanalys och semi-strukturerade intervjuer. På grund av förekomsten rekommenderades att ett biaskapitel införs i handboken, samt att utvalda delar av redan skriven text skrivs om eller belyser risken för påverkan av bias.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. , p. 37
Keywords [en]
cognitive bias, Das and Teng, systems analysis, Försvarsmaktens handbok i studiemetodik
Keywords [sv]
kognitiv bias, Das & Teng, systemanalys, Försvarsmaktens handbok i studiemetodik
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-8523OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-8523DiVA, id: diva2:1308085
Subject / course
Militärteknik, självständigt arbete
Educational program
Officersprogrammet (OP)
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2019-05-23 Created: 2019-04-30 Last updated: 2019-05-23Bibliographically approved

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Påverkan av kognitiva biaser på Försvarsmaktens systemanalysschema(504 kB)9 downloads
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