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Energy Policy Instrument Modeling in the Agent-Based Energy Model DiDo
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology.
2018 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

This work is investigating how energy policy instruments can be depicted explicitly in DiDo, the re-gional agent-based energy transition model for the Netherlands designed by the TNO. Within DiDo the transition of the energy system is considered a result of individual transformations of the different stake-holders in the system. The focus of this work lies on household agents, their investment decision making and the effects of policy instruments on this microeconomic level. Bounded rationality, heuristics and individual attitudes and perceptions are identified to play a relevant role when investing in energy assets and thus an explicit parameterization of these particularities of human behavior is proposed. The model-ing of the investment decision is following a rational approach originating from finance that features the Markowitz portfolio optimization, which is relying on the return of investments (ROI) in assets. In order to incorporate behavioral aspects and perceptions into this rational frame, the concept of subjective ROI is introduced. Arising from recent developments in behavioral economics, this concept is in line with the observations made on financial markets that challenge the long maintained assumption of normally dis-tributed ROI distributions. Finally, surveying individual willingness to pay for energy assets and testing the correlation with behavioral and policy instrument aspects using a regression analysis is proposed as the subsequent methodological step.

Abstract [sv]

Det här arbetet undersöker hur energipolitiska instrument kan avbildas uttryckligen i DiDo, den regionala agentbaserade energitransitionsmodellen för Nederländerna, designad av TNO. Inom DiDo anses skiftet av energisystemet vara ett resultat av individuella omvandlingar av de olika intressenterna i systemet. Inriktningen för detta arbete låg på hushållsmedlemmar, deras investeringsbeslutsfattande och effekterna av politiska instrument på denna mikroekonomiska nivå. Bundet rationalitet, heuristik och individuella attityder och uppfattningar identifierades för att spela en relevant roll när man investerar i energitillgångar och därmed föreslagits en explicit parametresering av dessa särdrag av mänskligt beteende. Modelleringen av investeringsbeslutet följer en rationell strategi som härrör från finansiering som använder Markowitz-portfölje optimering, som är beroende av avkastning av investeringar (ROI) i tillgångar. För att integrera beteendeaspekter och uppfattningar i denna rationella ram introduceras koncept av subjektivt ROI. På grund av den senaste utvecklingen inom beteendeekonomin ligger detta koncept i linje med observationerna på de finansiella marknaderna som utmanar det gammalt antagna-det om normalt fördelade avkastnings fördelningar. Slutligen föreslås undersökning av individuell vilja att betala för energitillgångar och testa korrelationen med beteendemässiga och politiska instrumentaspekter med hjälp av en regressionsanalys som det efterföljande metodologiska steget.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2018. , p. 59
Series
TRITA-ITM-EX 2018 ; 684
National Category
Mechanical Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-245054OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-245054DiVA, id: diva2:1293726
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2019-03-05 Created: 2019-03-05 Last updated: 2019-03-05Bibliographically approved

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