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Can demography improve inflation forecasts? : the case of Sweden
Uppsala University, Humanistisk-samhällsvetenskapliga vetenskapsområdet, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
2002 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Time series regressions indicate that age structure has significant forecasting power on Swedish inflation. The results agree with a Phillips-Okun framework, assuming that the demographic composition affects productivity. The relative age effects are also relatively well in accordance with what could be expected from life-cycle theory. In the forecasting exercise the age model outperforms the estimated benchmarks; i.e. two autoregressive models, an ARIMA and the 2 per cent forecast corresponding to the stipulated inflation target. The age model is also considerably better than the consensus forecasts and it is equal in merit with a general VAR model that has been used by the Riksbank (Bank of Sweden). We conclude that the source of information embedded in the age shares is something the Riksbank should consider when conducting monetary policy. When extending the forecasting horizon, the age model predicts a significant rise in the inflationary pressure after 2005 when the big baby boom cohort of the 1940s enters retirement.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Uppsala: Nationalekonomiska institutionen , 2002. , p. 34
Series
Working paper, ISSN 0284-2904 ; 2002:4
Keywords [en]
Economics
Keywords [sv]
Nationalekonomi
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-2224OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-2224DiVA, id: diva2:128485
Available from: 2002-03-22 Created: 2002-03-22

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf