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Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Nino 2015
Univ Liverpool, Inst Infect & Global Hlth, Dept Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, Liverpool CH64 7TE, Merseyside, England;Univ Liverpool, Hlth Protect Res Unit Emerging & Zoonot Infect, Liverpool L69 3GL, Merseyside, England.
Univ Liverpool, Inst Infect & Global Hlth, Dept Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, Liverpool CH64 7TE, Merseyside, England.
Univ Liverpool, Sch Environm Sci, Dept Geog & Planning, Liverpool L69 7ZT, Merseyside, England;Univ Liverpool, Hlth Protect Res Unit Emerging & Zoonot Infect, Liverpool L69 3GL, Merseyside, England.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Medicine and Pharmacy, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Medical Biochemistry and Microbiology. Univ Liverpool, Inst Infect & Global Hlth, Dept Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, Liverpool CH64 7TE, Merseyside, England.
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2017 (English)In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 114, no 1, p. 119-124Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Zika, a mosquito-borne viral disease that emerged in South America in 2015, was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the WHO in February of 2016. We developed a climate-driven R-0 mathematical model for the transmission risk of Zika virus (ZIKV) that explicitly includes two keymosquito vector species: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The model was parameterized and calibrated using the most up to date information from the available literature. It was then driven by observed gridded temperature and rainfall datasets for the period 1950-2015. We find that the transmission risk in South America in 2015 was the highest since 1950. This maximum is related to favoring temperature conditions that caused the simulated biting rates to be largest and mosquito mortality rates and extrinsic incubation periods to be smallest in 2015. This event followed the suspected introduction of ZIKV in Brazil in 2013. The ZIKV outbreak in Latin America has very likely been fueled by the 2015-2016 El Nino climate phenomenon affecting the region. The highest transmission risk globally is in South America and tropical countries where Ae. aegypti is abundant. Transmission risk is strongly seasonal in temperate regions where Ae. albopictus is present, with significant risk of ZIKV transmission in the southeastern states of the United States, in southern China, and to a lesser extent, over southern Europe during the boreal summer season.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. Vol. 114, no 1, p. 119-124
Keywords [en]
Zika virus, R-0 model, El Nino, Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology Microbiology in the medical area
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-359800DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1614303114ISI: 000391093700037PubMedID: 27994145OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-359800DiVA, id: diva2:1250408
Note

Correction in PNAS February 14, 2017 114 (7) E1301-E1302: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1700746114

Available from: 2018-09-24 Created: 2018-09-24 Last updated: 2018-09-24Bibliographically approved

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Hesson, Jenny C.
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