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Tillförlitlighet i aktieanalytikers prognoser
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Business Studies.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Humanities and Social Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Business Studies.
2018 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
The reliability of stock analysts’ forecasts (English)
Abstract [sv]

Prognoser publicerade av aktieanalytiker har en betydande påverkan på kapitalmarknaden och investeringsbeslut. Genom att förmedla information inom kapitalmarknaden spelar aktieanalytiker en vital roll. Därför syftar denna studie till att undersöka aktieanalytikers förmåga att prognostisera finansiella nyckeltal från företags resultaträkning. Studien syftar även till att undersöka under vilka förhållanden aktieanalytikers träffsäkerhet påverkas.

Vi undersöker aktieanalytikers träffsäkerhet genom att mäta prognosfel i konsensusestimat över perioden 2000 – 2017 för 93 företag listade på Nasdaq OMX Stockholm Large Cap. Vi finner ett positivt samband mellan marknadsvärde och ökad träffsäkerhet i aktieanalytikers prognoser för mindre företag. Vi finner även att ett högt antal analytiker som ingår i konsensus positivt påverkar prognosens träffsäkerhet. Resultaten visar även att träffsäkerheten i aktieanalytikers prognoser varierar beroende på antal analytiker i konsensus inom olika sektorer.

Abstract [en]

In this study, we investigate the accuracy of stock analyst estimates. We measure forecasting accuracy by forecasting error for key financial figures from the firm’s income statements. This study also measures firm specific factors effect on analyst forecasting accuracy. Our study includes 93 companies listed on Nasdaq OMX Stockholm Large Cap between the years 2000 – 2017.

Our findings conclude that a positive correlation exists between market value and forecasting accuracy for smaller firms. We also find that analyst coverage is positively related to forecasting accuracy. Our findings also show that forecasting accuracy varies with analyst coverage within different sectors.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2018. , p. 18
Keywords [en]
Consensus estimates, OMX Stockholm Large Cap, forecast error, stock analyst
Keywords [sv]
Konsensusestimat, OMX Stockholm Large Cap, prognosfel, aktieanalytiker
National Category
Business Administration
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-355527OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-355527DiVA, id: diva2:1229513
Subject / course
Business Studies
Educational program
Bachelor Programme in Business Studies
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2018-07-02 Created: 2018-06-30 Last updated: 2018-07-02Bibliographically approved

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