Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Osäkerhetsanalys av kostnadsuppskattningar i projekt: Implementering av korrelation i Monte Carlo-simulering
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy.
2018 (Swedish)Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Cost overruns in projects have historically been a problem spread over different sectors. Generating accurate estimates early in the project life cycle is difficult. However, uncertainty in cost estimates can be assessed. This report sought to analyze the consequences of neglecting correlation between cost estimates in the uncertainty analysis performed at WSP Management Stockholm. The uncertainty analysis consisted of a model using Monte Carlo simulation with PERT-distributed three-point estimates from expert judgement as input.

7 Swedish projects, 4 in infrastructure and 3 in construction, with a total expected cost of 7.1 billion SEK were analyzed; all in early stages of the project life cycle. Estimated costs were correlated successively in 3 different correlation scenarios with correlation coefficients 0.3, 0.7 and 1; later compared with the uncorrelated scenario. Results showed that:

Each scenario led to an increase in the result’s standard deviation of 68%, 129% and 168% in average for correlation coefficients 0.3, 0.7 and 1 respectively.

Furthermore, if the 85th percentile in the resulting cumulative distribution was to be used to determine the cost frame of the project, assuming no correlation in a scenario with the 10 most uncertain cost estimates correlated would lead to an underestimation of the final cost with 3%, 6% and 8% for correlation coefficients 0.3, 0.7 and 1 respectively.

Lastly, if standard deviation in the results is low there is a reason to question the results. Estimating correlation in the model accounts for a wider range of outcomes and may be more realistic in an uncertain reality. Furthermore, correlation can compensate for the uncertainty that is lost in calculations as estimates are broken down into more detail.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2018. , p. 63
Series
UPTEC ES, ISSN 1650-8300 ; 18 025
Keywords [sv]
Projektledning, Stokastisk simulering, Kostnadsöverskridanden, Korrelation, Monte Carlo, Osäkerhetsanalys
National Category
Mathematical Analysis
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-355223OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-355223DiVA, id: diva2:1227993
External cooperation
WSP Svergie AB
Educational program
Master Programme in Energy Systems Engineering
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2018-06-27 Created: 2018-06-27 Last updated: 2018-06-27Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(1046 kB)51 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 1046 kBChecksum SHA-512
aa8617daba302ffe0b915dded04fed3bd150671ab8e4e8c4f3d4aa621f362e2f6ad639723f60ff105ed0867aa4e0a6c6afc1af615892f8425efe6e8d695de9bd
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

By organisation
Department of Physics and Astronomy
Mathematical Analysis

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 51 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

urn-nbn

Altmetric score

urn-nbn
Total: 69 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf