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Tillståndsklassificering av det svenska stamnätet och riktlinjer vid fysisk elhandel
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Optimization and Systems Theory.
2018 (Swedish)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
State classification of the Swedish backbone network and guidelines for physical electricity trade (English)
Abstract [sv]

Det svenska stamnätet behöver vara i balans vilket betyder att det ska ligga på 50 Hz. Beroende på i vilket tillstånd, över eller under 50 Hz som stamnätet befinner sig och beroende på hur elleverantörers prognoser för elförbrukning ser ut kan de tjäna eller förlora pengar på grund av den reglerkostnad som uppstår när nätet ska balanseras med reglerkraft. I den här rapporten tas två klassificeringsmodeller fram för att kunna prediktera i vilket tillstånd obalansen i stamnätet kommer att befinna sig i syfte att som elleverantör kunna justera sin egen prognos. Båda modellerna bygger på kvadratisk diskriminantanalys och baserat på den tas riktlinjer för prognosjusteringen fram med linjärprogrammering. Båda modellerna är grova och den första modellen har stora svårigheter med att identifiera både stora negativa och stora positiva tilläggspriser. I den andra modellen har de extrema värdena på tilläggspriserna slagits ihop i en klass varpå felet blir mindre för hela modellen men klassen blir oanvändbar. Resultatet kan ändå, med stor försiktighet sägas visa på positiv effekt för balansansvarig enhet om den skulle implementeras. Särskilt över längre tidsperioder finns stora summor pengar att tjäna med metoden som beskrivs i denna rapport.

Abstract [en]

The Swedish transmission grid needs to be in balance which means that the frequency should be 50 Hz. Depending on which condition, above or below 50 Hz the grid is located in and depending on the retailors forcasts they can earn or loose money due to the extra costs of balancing the grid. In this report two classification models takes form in order to predict in which condition the Swedish transmission grid is going to be located in. This in order to provide retailors to adjust their forecasts so they can earn money. The models are based on quadratic discriminant analysis and from it guidelines for the forecast changes is estimated with linear programming. Both models are rather crude. The first model due to the errors coming from the difficulty of finding the extreme values of the cost and the second model for the fact that one class contains both large negative and large positive values of the cost which makes the class unusable. Although, still with great caution the results show positive effects for the balance responsible party if the model should be implemented. Especially over long term a large amount of money can be earned by using the method provided in this report.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2018.
Series
TRITA-SCI-GRU ; 2018:286
National Category
Computational Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-231084OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-231084DiVA, id: diva2:1222198
Subject / course
Optimization and Systems Theory
Educational program
Master of Science - Applied and Computational Mathematics
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2018-06-21 Created: 2018-06-21 Last updated: 2018-06-25Bibliographically approved

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