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Housing Construction in Stockholm: Fundamental Factors’ Impact on Construction Volume
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Real Estate and Construction Management.
2018 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Bostadsbyggande i Stockholm : Fundamentala faktorers inverkan på konstruktionsvolym (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

Housing availability plays a central role for the mobility in the labour market and for the economic growth in a country. Housing construction in Sweden is now increasing strongly after a period of low construction during and after the financial crisis in 2008. Despite this, many of the Swedish municipalities indicate that there is a housing shortage, especially in the metropolitan regions. The main reason for this is that the population has grown at a faster pace compared to the number of homes. This thesis uses a regression analysis to analyse what fundamental economic factors that affected housing construction in Stockholm County between 1992 and 2016.  The result from the regression analysis shows that the repo rate, inflation, GDP, population, unemployment, housing prices, and construction cost, with a lag of seven, seven, zero, one, six, two, and three quarters respectively, have a significant effect on housing construction. Furthermore, the regression model showed a low significance level for income, thus this variable was excluded from the model. Moreover, a time trend was included in the regression model. The time trend shows statistically significance, and its β coefficient implies an approximate 3% increase in housing construction per year, on average. Moreover, the regression model, presented in this thesis, has an R-squared value of 0.73, which indicates that the model can explain 73% of the variation in housing construction in Stockholm County between 1992 and 2016.

Abstract [sv]

Tillgängligheten av bostäder spelar en central roll för rörligheten på arbetsmarknaden och för den ekonomiska tillväxten i ett land. Bostadsbyggandet i Sverige ökar nu kraftigt efter en period av lågkonjunktur, under och efter finanskrisen 2008. Trots detta anser många kommuner i Sverige att bostadsbristen är stor, särskilt i storstadsregionerna. Den främsta orsaken till detta är att befolkningen har vuxit i en högre takt än antalet bostäder. Denna uppsats använder en regressionsanalys för att analysera vilka fundamentala ekonomiska faktorer som påverkat bostadsbyggandet i Stockholms län mellan 1992 och 2016. Resultatet av regressionsanalysen visar att reporäntan, inflationen, BNP, befolkningsmängd, arbetslöshet, bostadspriser och byggkostnader, med sju, sju, noll, en, sex, två, respektive tre kvartals förskjutning, hade en signifikant inverkan på bostadsbyggandet. Vidare visade regressionsmodellen en låg signifikansnivå för variabeln inkomst, vilket medförde att denna variabel uteslöts från modellen. Dessutom inkluderades en tidsvariabel i regressionsmodellen. Tidsvariabeln visar statistisk signifikans och dess koefficient indikerar att bostadsbyggandet i genomsnitt ökade med ca 3% per år. Regressionsmodellen som presenteras i denna uppsats har ett R2-värde på 0,73 vilket indikerar att modellen förklarar 73% av variationen i bostadsbyggande i Stockholms län mellan 1992 och 2016.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2018. , p. 52
Series
TRITA-ABE-MBT ; 184
Keywords [en]
Housing construction, Swedish real estate market, Housing market, Fundamental economic factors
Keywords [sv]
bostadsbyggande, svenska fastighetsmarknaden, bostadsmarknaden, fundamentala ekonomiska faktorer
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-225119OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-225119DiVA, id: diva2:1194191
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Available from: 2018-06-15 Created: 2018-03-29 Last updated: 2018-06-15Bibliographically approved

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