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Swedish Wind Power Forecasts: Procedure, ErrorDistribution and Spacio-Temporal Correlation
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power and Energy Systems. (IRES)ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0685-0199
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power and Energy Systems. (IRES)
KTH, School of Electrical Engineering (EES), Electric Power and Energy Systems. (IRES)
2017 (English)In: 16th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants, Berlin, 2017, article id WIW17-124Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

The stochastic nature of wind imposes challengeson accurate predictions of wind power generation. A goodunderstanding of the errors that may occur is imperativefor greater penetration of wind power into the system, asit can facilitate planning and operation tasks. In this paper,Swedish wind power forecast accuracy over the forecasthorizon is analyzed and compared among different biddingzones. The root-mean-square error trajectory over the horizonis shown for Sweden and its individual bidding areas. Inaddition, a significant systematic wind power under-predictionis identified and discussed. The paper continues to analyzethe wind power forecast error distribution with respect tothe horizon. Furthermore, the spacio-temporal correlationbetween the errors at different horizons and bidding areasis presented. As expected, a stronger correlation between theforecast errors is identified in neighboring areas.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Berlin, 2017. article id WIW17-124
Keywords [en]
wind power, wind energy, wind power integration, wind power forecasting
National Category
Energy Systems
Research subject
Electrical Engineering; Energy Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-222119OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-222119DiVA, id: diva2:1179409
Conference
16th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants, Berlin/Germany, from 25 to 27 October 2017
Funder
StandUp for Wind, 76178
Note

QC 20180228

Available from: 2018-02-01 Created: 2018-02-01 Last updated: 2018-03-07Bibliographically approved

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fulltext(1138 kB)26 downloads
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Herre, LarsMatusevicius, TadasSöder, Lennart
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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
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Language
  • de-DE
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  • nn-NB
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  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
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  • asciidoc
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