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Estimated Effect of Temperature on Years of Life Lost: A Retrospective Time-Series Study of Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Regions
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health. Graduate School in Population Dynamics and Public Policy, Umeå University.
Umeå University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health. Graduate School in Population Dynamics and Public Policy, Umeå University; Vadu Rural Health Program, KEM Hospital Research Centre, Pune, India.
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2018 (English)In: Journal of Environmental Health Perspectives, ISSN 0091-6765, E-ISSN 1552-9924, Vol. 126, no 1, article id 017004Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have reported a strong association between temperature and mortality. Additional insights can be gained from investigating the effects of temperature on years of life lost (YLL), considering the life expectancy at the time of death.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this work was to assess the association between temperature and YLL at seven low-, middle-, and high-income sites.

METHODS: We obtained meteorological and population data for at least nine years from four Health and Demographic Surveillance Sites in Kenya (western Kenya, Nairobi), Burkina Faso (Nouna), and India (Vadu), as well as data from cities in the United States (Philadelphia, Phoenix) and Sweden (Stockholm). A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the association of daily maximum temperature and daily YLL, lagged 0-14 d. The reference value was set for each site at the temperature with the lowest YLL.

RESULTS: Generally, YLL increased with higher temperature, starting day 0. In Nouna, the hottest location, with a minimum YLL temperature at the first percentile, YLL increased consistently with higher temperatures. In Vadu, YLL increased in association with heat, whereas in Nairobi, YLL increased in association with both low and high temperatures. Associations with cold and heat were evident for Phoenix (stronger for heat), Stockholm, and Philadelphia (both stronger for cold). Patterns of associations with mortality were generally similar to those with YLL.

CONCLUSIONS: Both high and low temperatures are associated with YLL in high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Policy guidance and health adaptation measures might be improved with more comprehensive indicators of the health burden of high and low temperatures such as YLL.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Public Health Services, US Dept of Health and Human Services , 2018. Vol. 126, no 1, article id 017004
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Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
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URN: urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-144197DOI: 10.1289/EHP1745ISI: 000424212100010PubMedID: 29342452OAI: oai:DiVA.org:umu-144197DiVA, id: diva2:1177560
Available from: 2018-01-25 Created: 2018-01-25 Last updated: 2018-06-09Bibliographically approved

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