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Military intelligence analysis: institutional influence
Swedish Defence University, Department of Military Studies, Science of Command and Control and Military Technology Division, Military Technology Applications Section.
2017 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Intelligence is vital for the outcome of battles. As long as humans wage war, there will be a need for decision support to military and civilian leaders regarding adversaries or potential adversaries. However, the production of intelligence is neither easy nor without pitfalls. There is a need to better understand the predicaments of intelligence analysis.

Intelligence is bureaucratically produced as well as socially constructed and created in a distinct cultural context. The ‘institution’ captures these three aspects of influence. Therefore, with a particular focus on military intelligence, this thesis aims to deepen the understanding regarding institutional influence on intelligence assessments. The literature regarding intelligence has grown steadily over the last three decades. However, theories and frameworks aimed to understand the phenomenon are still sparse. This is even more true for literature regarding contemporary military intelligence. This thesis intends to contribute to bridging these research gaps. This is done by studying the Swedish military intelligence institution from several different perspectives: its rules-in-use, shared beliefs, and the incoming stimuli primarily related to conducting threat assessments.

More precisely the thesis investigates the use of quantitative methods, doctrines (i.e. the formal rules), and shared beliefs connected to epistemological assumptions and threat assessments. The main contribution of this thesis is that it establishes and describes a casual link between a military intelligence institution and an assessment, by drawing upon rulesin-use and belief systems and their effect on the mental model and consequently the perception of the situation connected to a cognitive bias, and thereby its effect on a given assessment. The thesis makes an effort to render intelligence studies more generalizable, by way of adopting the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework. The metatheoretical language of the IAD is a promising avenue for explaining and describing the institutional influence on intelligence assessments.

Abstract [sv]

Underrättelse är en avgörande komponent för utfallet av väpnad strid. Så länge människor krigar, kommer det att finnas ett behov av beslutsstöd till militära och civila ledare angående dess motståndare och potentiella motståndare. Produktionen av underrättelse är dock inte lätt eller utan fallgropar. Det finns där för ett behov av att öka förståelsen för de predikamenten kopplade till underrättelseanalys.

Underrättelse som produkt är byråkratiskt såväl som socialt konstruerad och skapas i ett distinkt kulturellt sammanhang. Konceptet "Institution" kan ses fånga alla dessa tre aspekter. Därför handlar det speciellt om militär intelligens, som handlar om att förstå det institutionella inflytandet på intelligensbedömningar. Den tillgängliga underrättelselitteraturen har ökat stadigt under de senaste tre decennierna. Dock gällande teorier och ramverk på området som syftar till att förstå fenomenet är det emellertid fortfarande lite gjort. Detta gäller i än högre utsträckning för det specifika området modern militärunderrättelse verksamhet. Avhandlingen avser att bidra till att överbrygga dessa forskningsgap. Detta görs genom att studera den svenska militärunderrättelseinstitutionen ur flera perspektiv. Dess regler-i-bruk, delad trossystem/övertygelser samt den inkommande stimuli(data/information) primärt kopplade till hur hotbedömningar genomförs. Mer exakt granskar avhandlingen användningen av kvantitativa metoder, doktriner (dvs de formella reglerna) och delade föreställningar kopplade till epistemologiska antaganden och hotbedömningar.

Huvudresultatet av denna avhandling är att det etablerar och beskriver en länk mellan en militärunderrättelseinstitution och de bedömningar som görs. Det går att se en direkt länk mellan de regler-i-bruk samt institutionens trossystem och deras inverkan på individens mentalmodellen. Detta sker genom att de rådande reglerna påverkar förekomesten av kognitivt bias vilket där med påverkar analytikerns uppfattning av en given situation. Avhandlingen har där med en ambition att göra studier i underrättelseanalys mer generaliserbara, genom att applicera och utveckla ramverket för institutionell analys och utveckling (IAD). Det metadeteoretiska språket i IAD är en lovande aveny för att förklara och beskriva det institutionella inflytandet på intelligensbedömningar.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Helsingfors: Finnish National Defence University , 2017. , p. 180
Series
Research Publications, ISSN 2343-0001, E-ISSN 2343-0001 ; 14
Keywords [en]
intelligence analysis, military intelligence, institutions and threat assessments
National Category
Political Science
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-7141ISBN: 9789512529292 (print)ISBN: 9789512529308 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:fhs-7141DiVA, id: diva2:1163069
Public defence
2017-10-27, Sverigesalen, Drottning Kristinas väg 37, Stockholm, 11:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2017-12-06 Created: 2017-12-05 Last updated: 2017-12-06Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Pitfalls in Military Quantitative Intelligence Analysis: Incident Reporting in a Low Intensity Conflict
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Pitfalls in Military Quantitative Intelligence Analysis: Incident Reporting in a Low Intensity Conflict
2016 (English)In: Intelligence and national security, ISSN 0268-4527, E-ISSN 1743-9019, Vol. 31, no 1, p. 49-73Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Incidents are the key data for several of the statistical reports and analyses created within the military intelligence community. This paper discusses factors that affect the utility of quantitative methods in military intelligence analysis when used in a low intensity conflict. The first half of the paper presents the general critique of the use of quantitative methods. The second half applies this critique to the case of incident reporting in Afghanistan.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis Group, 2016
Keywords
Intelligence, Analysis, Quantitative methods
National Category
Political Science
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-4837 (URN)10.1080/02684527.2014.930584 (DOI)000372534600004 ()
Available from: 2014-08-07 Created: 2014-08-07 Last updated: 2018-06-29Bibliographically approved
2. An examination of the implementation of risk based approaches in military operations
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An examination of the implementation of risk based approaches in military operations
2014 (English)In: Journal of Military Studies, ISSN 1799-3350, Vol. 5, no 2, p. 1-27Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Today several nations utilise risk based approaches in military planning. However, the discussion on limitations with the approaches in regard to aspects such as uncertainties, the nature of the threat and risk to civilians is limited.

The aim of this work is to identify important challenges when applying risk based approaches to military activity. This article discusses risk based approaches in general and their military applications. Five generic quality requirements on risk analysis are presented from research in risk philosophy. Two military application areas for risk analysis: military intelligence, and risk management in legal assessments are analysed in relation to the presented quality requirements on risk analysis.

From the analysis it is clear that risk analysis is an integral part of the decision-making analysis and cannot be separated in time, space or organisationally from the decision-making process in general. Defining the scenario to analyse, including the time span, is a central task in risk analysis and will affect every aspect of the risk estimation. Therefore, the principles for scenario definition must be communicated and continuously updated throughout the organisation. Handling the uncertainties throughout the process is also important, especially if the aim is a resilient military system.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Helsinki: National Defense University, Finland and Finnish Society of Military Sciences, 2014
Keywords
Security risk management process, risk analysis, threat assessment, risk awareness, military intelligence, legal assessment
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified Law and Society Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-4639 (URN)
Available from: 2014-06-06 Created: 2014-06-06 Last updated: 2017-12-05Bibliographically approved
3. Towards Offensive Cyber Counterintelligence: Adopting a Target-Centric View on Advanced Persistent Threats
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Towards Offensive Cyber Counterintelligence: Adopting a Target-Centric View on Advanced Persistent Threats
2013 (English)In: Proceedings of the 2013 European Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference / [ed] Joel Brynielsson & Fredrik Johansson, IEEE Computer Society, 2013, p. 166-171Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Although the traditional strategies for cyber defense in use today are necessary to mitigate broad ranges of common threats, they are not well-suited to protect against a persistent antagonist with access to advanced system exploitation techniques and knowledge of existing but yet undiscovered software vulnerabilities. Addressing the threat caused by such antagonists requires a fast and offensive Cyber Counterintelligence (CCI) process, and a more efficient interorganizational information exchange. This paper proposes a framework for offensive CCI based on technical tools and techniques for data mining, anomaly detection, and extensive sharing of cyber threat data. The framework is placed within the distinct context of military intelligence, in order to achieve a holistic, offensive and target-centric view of future CCI. The main contributions offered are (i) a comprehensive process that bridges the gap between the various actors involved in CCI, (ii) an applied technical architecture to support detection and identification of data leaks emanating from cyber espionage, and (iii) deduced intelligence community requirements.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE Computer Society, 2013
Keywords
cyber, counterintelligence, espionage, anomaly detection, attribution
National Category
Information Systems, Social aspects
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-4118 (URN)10.1109/EISIC.2013.37 (DOI)978-0-7695-5062-6 (ISBN)
Conference
European Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference (EISIC 2013), 12-14 August 2013, Uppsala, Sweden
Available from: 2013-08-14 Created: 2013-08-14 Last updated: 2017-12-05Bibliographically approved
4. A Shared Epistemological View Within Military Intelligence Institutions
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Shared Epistemological View Within Military Intelligence Institutions
2017 (English)In: The international journal of intelligenca and counter intelligence, ISSN 0885-0607, E-ISSN 1521-0561, Vol. 30, no 1, p. 102-116Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Routledge, 2017
National Category
Political Science
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6649 (URN)10.1080/08850607.2016.1177401 (DOI)000396591700006 ()
Available from: 2017-03-23 Created: 2017-03-23 Last updated: 2018-06-29Bibliographically approved
5. Influences on threat assessment in a military context
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Influences on threat assessment in a military context
2016 (English)In: Defense and Security Analysis, ISSN 1475-1798, E-ISSN 1475-1801, Vol. 32, no 3, p. 264-277Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The anchoring effect is a well-studied subject. This article connects the effect with the rules-in-use within a military intelligence institution. Particularly the rules-in-use that dictate that an analyst takes his or hers starting point from recently conducted assessments of the specific area or threat. The threat assessment as well as the written assessment were affected. The results show that officers have an aversion to lower a previous given threat assessment. This gives that to understand risk assessment we not only need to understand the methods used, we also need to understand the institutions in which they are used. This is especially relevant for military intelligence as the assessments are conducted in an environment of high uncertainty.

Keywords
intelligence, anchoring, threat assessment, rule-inuse, institutions, underrättelse, hotbedömning, praxis, institutioner
National Category
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified Other Engineering and Technologies not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Militärteknik
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-6245 (URN)10.1080/14751798.2016.1199118 (DOI)000392657200006 ()
Available from: 2016-07-04 Created: 2016-07-04 Last updated: 2018-06-29Bibliographically approved

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