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Future Riverine Inorganic Nitrogen Load to the Baltic Sea From Sweden: An Ensemble Approach to Assessing Climate Change Effects
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3344-2468
Umea Univ, Dept Ecol & Environm Sci, Umea, Sweden.
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6537-0753
Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Forest Ecol & Management, Umea, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-9428-5005
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2017 (English)In: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, ISSN 0886-6236, E-ISSN 1944-9224, Vol. 31, no 11, p. 1674-1701Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The dramatic increase of bioreactive nitrogen entering the Earth’s ecosystems continues toattract growing attention. Increasingly large quantities of inorganic nitrogen are flushed from land towater, accelerating freshwater, and marine eutrophication. Multiple, interacting, and potentiallycountervailing drivers control the future hydrologic export of inorganic nitrogen. In this paper, we attempt toresolve these land-water interactions across boreal/hemiboreal Sweden in the face of a changing climatewith help of a versatile modeling framework to maximize the information value of existing measurementtime series. We combined 6,962 spatially distributed water chemistry observations spread over 31 years withdaily streamflow and air temperature records. An ensemble of climate model projections, hydrologicalsimulations, and several parameter parsimonious regression models was employed to project future riverineinorganic nitrogen dynamics across Sweden. The median predicted increase in total inorganic nitrogenexport from Sweden (2061–2090) due to climate change was 14% (interquartile range 0–29%), based on theensemble of 7,500 different predictions for each study site. The overall export as well as the seasonal patternof inorganic nitrogen loads in a future climate are mostly influenced by longer growing seasons and morewinter flow, which offset the expected decline in spring flood. The predicted increase in inorganic nitrogenloading due to climate change means that the political efforts for reducing anthropogenic nitrogen inputsneed to be increased if ambitions for reducing the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea are to be achieved.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2017. Vol. 31, no 11, p. 1674-1701
Keyword [en]
streamflow, climate change, nitrogen, Baltic Sea, Sweden, eutrophication
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources Geosciences, Multidisciplinary Climate Research
Research subject
Hydrology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-335388DOI: 10.1002/2016GB005598ISI: 000418082000004ISBN: 08866236 OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-335388DiVA, id: diva2:1162636
Available from: 2017-12-05 Created: 2017-12-05 Last updated: 2018-01-29Bibliographically approved

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Teutschbein, ClaudiaGrabs, ThomasBlackburn, M.Boyer, Elizabeth W.Hytteborn, Julia K.Bishop, Kevin
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Oceanography, Hydrology and Water ResourcesGeosciences, MultidisciplinaryClimate Research

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