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Climate change model as a decision support tool for water resources management in northern Iraq: a case studyof Greater Zab River
Faculty of Advanced Engineering and Sciences, University of Bolton.
Luleå University of Technology, Department of Civil, Environmental and Natural Resources Engineering, Mining and Geotechnical Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6790-2653
Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Liverpool JM University .
2017 (English)In: Journal of Water and Climate, ISSN 2040-2244, Vol. 8, no 4Article in journal (Refereed) [Artistic work] Published
Abstract [en]

The northern region of Iraq heavily depends on rivers, such as the Greater Zab, for water supply and irrigation. Thus, river water management in light of future climate change is of paramount importance in the region. In this study, daily rainfall and temperature obtained from the Greater Zab catchment, for 1961 –2008, were used in building rainfall and evapotranspiration models using LARSWG and multiple linear regressions, respectively. A rainfall –runoff model, in the form of autoregressive model with exogenous factors, has been developed using observed flow, rainfall and evapotranspiration data. The calibrated rainfall

–runoff model was subsequently used to investigate the impacts of climate change on the Greater Zab flows for the near (2011–2030), medium (2046–2065), and far (2080–2099) futures. Results from the impacts model showed that the catchment is projected to suffer a significant reduction in total annual flow in the far future; with more severe drop during the winter and spring seasons in the range of 25 to 65%. This would have serious ramifications for the current agricultural activities in the catchment. The results could be of significant benefits for water management planners in the catchment as they can be used in allocating water for different users in the catchment.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IWA publishing , 2017. Vol. 8, no 4
Keyword [en]
ARX (p), climate change, Greater zab River, LARS-WG, rainfall–runoff model
National Category
Engineering and Technology Geotechnical Engineering
Research subject
Soil Mechanics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-66788DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2017.083OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ltu-66788DiVA, id: diva2:1160714
Note

Validerad;2017;Nivå 2;2017-12-01 (andbra)

Available from: 2017-11-28 Created: 2017-11-28 Last updated: 2017-12-01Bibliographically approved

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