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Växelkursens påverkan på svensk export.: Hur påverkas den svenska exporten av förändringar i växelkursen?
Södertörn University, School of Social Sciences, Economics.
Södertörn University, School of Social Sciences, Economics.
2017 (Swedish)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

In this study, we will show how Sweden's export is affected by changes in the exchange rate during the years 1962-2011. The regression model is built on the gravity model of trade, and is tested with both OLS and fixed effects. We have collected data from Sweden’s top 30 trading partners according to Statistiska Centralbyrån in April 2017. Three historically important regimes for Swedish exchange rate have been selected to study the short time effects on Swedish export. Those periods are 1970-1975, which is the last years of the Bretton Woods system and when it fell, 1991-1994 which is the period Sweden changed from fixed exchange rate to a floating and 2001-2006 to examine Sweden’s choice of not participate in the European Monetary Union (EMU). When analyzing the result, there is no conclusion on whether the effects of the changes in exchange rates have had a negative or positive impact on the Swedish export. The results vary depending on whether OLS or fixed effects are used.

Abstract [sv]

I den här studien ska vi visa hur Sveriges export påverkats av förändringar i växelkursen under tidsperioden 1962–2011. Den använda regressionsmodellen har sin grund i gravitationsmodellen och testas med OLS och fixa effekter. Studien använder sig av Sveriges 30 största exportländer enligt Statistiska Centralbyrån i april 2017. Tre historiskt viktiga händelser för svensk växelkurs har valts ut för att undersöka de kortsiktiga effekterna på den svenska exporten. Dessa perioder är Bretton Woods systemet (1970–1975), när Sverige bytte från fast till rörlig växelkurs (1991–1994) och perioden 2001–2006 för att studera effekten av Sveriges val att stå utanför EMU. När vi analyserar resultatet finns det ingen slutgiltig slutsats av huruvida förändringar i växelkursen har haft en positiv eller negativ effekt på den svenska exporten. Resultaten varierar beroende på om OLS eller fixa effekter har använts.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. , p. 32
Keywords [en]
Exchange rate, Trade, Fixed effects, OLS, Gravity model of trade
Keywords [sv]
Växelkurs, Handel, Fixa effekter, OLS, Gravitationsmodellen
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-33719OAI: oai:DiVA.org:sh-33719DiVA, id: diva2:1158025
Subject / course
Economics
Uppsok
Social and Behavioural Science, Law
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2017-11-17 Created: 2017-11-17 Last updated: 2017-11-17Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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