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Policy Analysis for Different Types of Decision-Making Situations
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, Transport Planning, Economics and Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6818-4369
2017 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This thesis seeks to contribute to decision support for policy makers in the transport sector. In order to frame the papers and to relate them to the broad field of “policy analysis”, I have structured the papers around a simple framework with three decision levels: responsibility, policy gap, and policy measure. The thesis contains five papers.

“Transaction and transition costs during the deregulation of the Swedish Railway market” is a paper in the transaction cost school. We studied the costs associated with the shift from monopoly to competition in the Swedish railway market, and we found that the change resulted in comparatively small transaction costs, but that transition and misalignment costs seem to be larger. 

In “Parking policy under strategic interaction”, I examined the effect of strategic interaction between jurisdictions using an analytical model based on Hotelling’s linear city model. I conclude that the procedure for setting supply in most municipalities has a strong downward effect on municipal parking fees and that resource flow competition implies that the fees are higher than the efficient prices (but that the effect of the supply procedures makes this effect incongruous).

In “Validation of aggregate reference forecasts for passenger transport”, we followed up the Swedish national forecasts for passenger transport produced from 1975 to 2009 and tried to explain the deviations. We found that the forecasts during the last decades have overestimated car traffic, and that this is due to input errors. The potential problem of using cross-sectional models for forecasting intertemporal changes seems to have been limited.

In “The kilometer tax and Swedish industry - effects on sectors and regions”, we estimated factor demand elasticities in the Swedish manufacturing industry and used these to analyze the effects of a kilometer tax for heavy goods vehicles. We found that the kilometer tax leads to factor substitution in that it decreases transport demand and increases labor demand. The effects on output are less pronounced.  

In “The effect of minimum parking requirements on the housing stock”, we used a model of the rental, asset, and construction markets. We quality-assured our assumptions and our results through interviews with market actors. In our example suburb, we found that parking norms reduced the housing stock by 1.2% and increased rents by 2.4%. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2017. , 49 p.
Keyword [en]
transaction cost, transition cost, misalignment, parking policy, strategic interaction, spillover, resource flow, reference forecast, kilometer tax, minimum parking requirements
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-216974ISBN: 978-91-88537-04-1 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-216974DiVA: diva2:1152763
Public defence
2017-11-17, Kollegiesalen, Brinellvägen 8, Stockholm, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Swedish Transport AdministrationSwedish Environmental Protection Agency
Note

QC 20171026

Available from: 2017-10-26 Created: 2017-10-26 Last updated: 2017-10-31Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Transaction and transition costs during the deregulation of the Swedish Railway market
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Transaction and transition costs during the deregulation of the Swedish Railway market
2016 (English)In: Research in Transportation Economics, ISSN 0739-8859, Vol. 59, 349-357 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The research on regulatory reform has identified and measured three types of costs associated with the shift from monopoly to competition: transaction costs, misalignment costs and transition costs. In this article we use a case study approach to measure and compare these costs during the deregulation of the Swedish railway system from 2000-2015. Our case studies confirm earlier research that vertical separation and the introduction of competition in the railway markets result in comparatively small direct transaction costs. Extraordinary transaction costs in the form of interrupted contracts are also a minor problem for the railway system as a whole but might create major problems for the affected region. Our research concurs with earlier research on the British railway system and a CER study that misalignment costs seem to be significantly bigger and more troublesome to handle than direct transaction costs. Railway maintenance costs in Sweden using competitive tenders are increasing four to five times faster than railway operations with no measurable improvement in performance. Transition costs have been and continue to be important in the deregulated Swedish railway system. First, procrastination in the form of delayed changes in the allocation of train paths results in misalignment costs that seem to be growing. Second, adjustment costs in the form of handouts to the former monopolist have been ten times higher than the costs for interrupted contracts.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
JAI Press Ltd, 2016
Keyword
Railways, Deregulation, Transaction costs, Transition costs, Misalignment, Adaptation, Selection
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-200415 (URN)10.1016/j.retrec.2016.05.002 (DOI)000391074400042 ()2-s2.0-85004025711 (Scopus ID)
Conference
14th International Conference on Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport (Thredbo), AUG 30-SEP 03, 2015, Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Dept Transport Engn & Logist, Santiago, Chile
Note

QC 20170127

Available from: 2017-01-27 Created: 2017-01-27 Last updated: 2017-10-26Bibliographically approved
2. Parking Policy under Strategic Interaction
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Parking Policy under Strategic Interaction
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

I  examine   the   effect   on   parking   policy   of   strategic   interaction   between jurisdictions. To do this I use an inventory scheme and an analytical model basedon Hotelling’s linear city model. I conclude that the procedure for setting supplyhas a downward effect on prices, that resource flow competition implies that thecompetitive prices are higher than the efficient prices (but that the effect of thesupply procedures makes this effect incongruous), that road investments lowersparking prices and that municipality’ park-and-ride policies often leads to the fullbenefits of public transport investments not being attained.

Keyword
Parking, spillover, resource flow, efficiency, strategic interaction, linear city
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-216973 (URN)
Funder
Swedish Transport Administration
Note

QC 20171026

Available from: 2017-10-26 Created: 2017-10-26 Last updated: 2017-10-26
3. Validation of aggregate reference forecasts for passenger transport
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Validation of aggregate reference forecasts for passenger transport
2017 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 96, 101-118 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We have compared Swedish national forecasts for passenger transport produced from 1975 to 2009 with the actual outcomes, and we found substantial differences between forecasts of passenger kilometers by mode and actual outcomes. In forecasts produced since the early 1990 s, road and air traffic growth rates have generally been overpredicted. Aggregate railway growth has been fairly accurate, but commercial long-distance railway growth has been overpredicted, and the growth of subsidized intra-regional railway travel has been underpredicted (following vast unanticipated supply increases). Focusing on car traffic forecasts, we show that a very large share of forecast errors can be explained by input variables turning out to be different than what was assumed in the forecasts. Even the original forecasts are much closer to actual outcomes than simple trendlines would have been, and once the input assumptions are corrected, the forecasts vastly outperform simple trendlines. The potential problems of using cross-sectional models for forecasting intertemporal changes thus seem to be limited. This tentative conclusion is also supported by the finding that elasticities from the cross-sectional models are consistent with those from a time-series model.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2017
Keyword
Accuracy, Demand modeling, Forecast, Transport, Validation
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-201016 (URN)10.1016/j.tra.2016.12.008 (DOI)000393265100009 ()2-s2.0-85008392745 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20170207

Available from: 2017-02-07 Created: 2017-02-07 Last updated: 2017-10-26Bibliographically approved
4. The kilometer tax and Swedish industry - effects on sectors and regions
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The kilometer tax and Swedish industry - effects on sectors and regions
2009 (English)In: Applied Economics, ISSN 0003-6846, E-ISSN 1466-4283, 2907-2917 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

An introduction of a kilometer tax for heavy goods vehicles can be constrained by the risk of that higher production costs than competitors in other countries will negatively affect regions and industries of policy concern. We estimate factor demand elasticities in the Swedish manufacturing industry using firm level data for the 1990 to 2001 period on input prices and quantities. The results show that the introduction of a kilometer tax for heavy goods vehicles decreases transport demand and increases labour demand. The effects are less pronounced in terms of changes in output, though some industries (e. g. wood, pulp and paper) can be expected to be affected more than others due to their dependence on road freight transport. The regional dimension regarding the consequences of a kilometer tax seems to be small or even nonexisting.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2009
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-200563 (URN)10.1080/00036840802600608 (DOI)000295688700005 ()2-s2.0-79960906809 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20170130

Available from: 2017-01-30 Created: 2017-01-30 Last updated: 2017-10-26Bibliographically approved
5. The effect of minimum parking requirements on the housing stock
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The effect of minimum parking requirements on the housing stock
2016 (English)In: Transport Policy, ISSN 0967-070X, E-ISSN 1879-310X, Vol. 49, 206-215 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The cost of parking is in many cities subsidized and instead channelled through higher housing prices, wages, taxes, etc. The effects on other markets are principally well known, but the work on the area is limited. In this paper, we study how parking norms affect the size of the housing stock. Our analysis is based on a model of the rental, asset- and construction markets, the results are quality-assured by interviews with market actors. Prices and profits are affected when constructors are forced, through parking norms, to build more parking spaces than the customers demand. Parking norms reduce the housing stock by 1.2% and increase rents by 2.4% (SEK 300) in our example suburb. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keyword
Parking norms, Housing market, Construction
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-189800 (URN)10.1016/j.tranpol.2016.05.005 (DOI)000378181200021 ()2-s2.0-84965179224 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Transport Administration
Note

QC 20160720

Available from: 2016-07-20 Created: 2016-07-15 Last updated: 2017-10-26Bibliographically approved

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