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Internal model for spread risk under Solvency II
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
2017 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Intern modell för spread risk under Solvens II (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

In May 2009 the European Commission decided on new regulations regarding solvency among insurance firms, the Solvency II Directive. The directive aims to strengthen the connection between the requirement of solvency and risks for insurance firms. The directive partly consists of a market risk module, in which a credit spread risk is a sub category.

In this thesis a model for credit spread risk is implemented. The model is an extended version of the Jarrow, Lando and Turnbull model (A Markov Model for theTerm Structure of Credit Risk Spreads, 1997) as proposed by Dubrana (A Stochastic Model for Credit Spreads under a Risk-Neutral Framework through the use of an Extended Version of the Jarrow, Lando and Turnbull Model, 2011). The implementation includes the calibration of a stochastic credit risk driver as well as a simulation of bond returns with the allowance of credit transitions and defaults.

The modeling will be made with the requirements of the Solvency II Directive in mind. Finally, the result will be compared with the Solvency II standard formula for the spread risk sub-module.

Abstract [sv]

I maj 2009 beslutade Europeiska kommissionen om nya bestämmelser gällande solvens bland försäkringsföretag, Solvens II-direktivet. Direktivet syftar till att stärka sambandet mellan kravet på solvens och risker för försäkringsföretag. Direktivet består delvis av en marknadsriskmodul där spread risk är en underkategori.

I detta arbete implementeras en modell för spread risk. Modellen är en utökad version av Jarrow, Lando och Turnbull modell (A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads, 1997), föreslagen av Dubrana (A Stochastic Model for Credit Spreads under a Risk-Neutral Framework through the use of an Extended Version of the Jarrow, Lando and Turnbull Model, 2011). Implementeringen innefattar kalibrering av en stokastisk riskdrivare samt simulering av en obligationsportföljs avkastning där övergångar mellan kreditbetyg och inställda betalningar är tillåtna.

Modellen kommer att göras med kraven i Solvens II-direktivet i åtanke. Slutligen kommer resultatet att jämföras med Solvens II standardformel för delmodulen för spread risk.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017.
Series
TRITA-MAT-E ; 2017:67
National Category
Computational Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-215340OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-215340DiVA, id: diva2:1149190
External cooperation
Skandia
Subject / course
Financial Mathematics
Educational program
Master of Science - Industrial Engineering and Management
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2017-10-13 Created: 2017-10-13 Last updated: 2017-10-13Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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