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Asset-Liability Management with in Life Insurance
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Mathematical Statistics.
2017 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Asset-Liability Management inom livförsäkring (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

In recent years, new regulations and stronger competition have further increased the importance of stochastic asset-liability management (ALM) models for life insurance firms. However, the often complex nature of life insurance contracts makes modeling to a challenging task, and insurance firms often struggle with models quickly becoming too complicated and inefficient. There is therefore an interest in investigating if, in fact, certain traits of financial ratios could be exposed through a more efficient model.

In this thesis, a discrete time stochastic model framework, for the simulation of simplified balance sheets of life insurance products, is proposed. The model is based on a two-factor stochastic capital market model, supports the most important product characteristics, and incorporates a reserve-dependent bonus declaration. Furthermore, a first approach to endogenously model customer transitions is proposed, where realized policy returns are used for assigning transition probabilities.

The model's sensitivity to different input parameters, and ability to capture the most important behaviour patterns, are demonstrated by the use of scenario and sensitivity analyses. Furthermore, based on the findings from these analyses, suggestions for improvements and further research are also presented.

Abstract [sv]

Införandet av nya regelverk och ökad konkurrens har medfört att stokastiska ALM-modeller blivit allt viktigare för livförsäkringsbolag. Den ofta komplexa strukturen hos försäkringsprodukter försvårar dock modelleringen, vilket gör att många modeller anses vara för komplicerade samt ineffektiva, av försäkringsbolagen. Det finns därför ett intresse i att utreda om egenskaper hos viktiga finansiella nyckeltal kan studeras utifrån en mer effektiv och mindre komplicerad modell.

I detta arbete föreslås ett ramverk för stokastisk modellering av en förenklad version av balansräkningen hos typiska livförsäkringsbolag. Modellen baseras på en stokastisk kapitalmarknadsmodell, med vilken såväl aktiepriser som räntenivåer simuleras. Vidare så stödjer modellen simulering av de mest väsentliga produktegenskaperna, samt modellerar kundåterbäring som en funktion av den kollektiva konsolideringsgraden.

Modellens förmåga att fånga de viktigaste egenskaperna hos balansräkningens ingående komponenter undersöks med hjälp av scenario- och känslighetsanalyser. Ytterligare undersöks även huruvida modellen är känslig för förändringar i olika indata, där fokus främst tillägnas de parametrar som kräver mer avancerade skattningsmetoder.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017.
Series
TRITA-MAT-E ; 2017:66
Keyword [en]
Asset-liability management, Participating life insurance policies, Bonus policy, Ssurrender
National Category
Computational Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-215339OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-215339DiVA, id: diva2:1149189
External cooperation
Skandia
Subject / course
Financial Mathematics
Educational program
Master of Science - Industrial Engineering and Management
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2017-10-13 Created: 2017-10-13 Last updated: 2017-10-13Bibliographically approved

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