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Rent modelling of Swedish office markets: Forecasting and rent effects
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Real Estate and Construction Management.
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Real Estate and Construction Management.
2017 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Hyresmodellering av svenska kontorsmarknader : Prognoser och priseffekter (Swedish)
Abstract [en]

The Swedish office markets has been emerging the last decade towards a higher rental level equilibrium. The aim of this study is to investigate the fundamental drivers of office rents and modelling of office rent forecasts in five Swedish office submarkets; Stockholm (2), Gothenburg (2) and Malmö (1). The methodology is a combination of economic theory and econometric analysis. The product is an econometric model. By using the estimated drivers, office rent forecasts are modelled and computed based on a vector autoregression-model. Our results show that office stock and vacancy, in lagged fashion, are statistically superior in explaining office rent development. OMX30 was evident to be the largest macro-driver in explaining office rent. The generated forecasts were significant and valid in the CBD-submarkets. However, the forecasts for the Rest of Inner City (RIC)-submarkets were not as precise. The results also show that the forecasts move more linearly compared to the actual office rent data that move more "step-wise".

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. , 50 p.
Keyword [en]
Swedish office market, vector autoregression, forecast modelling, rent effects
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-211067Local ID: TRITA-FOB-ByF-MASTER-2017:06Archive number: 464OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-211067DiVA: diva2:1124505
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Available from: 2017-07-17 Created: 2017-07-13 Last updated: 2017-07-17Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf