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A new method for weekly adequacy studies: Feasibility study of a Monte-Carlo approach in order to estimate adequacy risk a week ahead
KTH, School of Industrial Engineering and Management (ITM), Energy Technology.
2017 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

RTE, as the French TSO, should estimate the adequacy risk from several year ahead to real-time. In particular, weekly studies are the first ones to use actual weather forecasts.

The current approach faces several limitations. Indeed, possible electricity exchanges with neighboring are not modeled. Moreover the error on the forecast of the demand and of the available power is inaccurately modeled. Finally the analysis of trough is very limited. Therefore, a need for a new approach to determine the weekly markings arises. With the objective of meeting such need, this work introduces a new probabilistic approach based on Monte-Carlo simulations, consistent with already established longer term studies. It is made to respond to the limitations of the current method and to be applied possibly with a transnational point of view. The model is described then the analysis methodology is detailed. This methodology process applies with a European point of view:

- First whether there is a risk in Europe is discussed and, if there are, which country would be concerned.

- The time and the magnitude of the risks is then analyzed.

- The causes are also considered in order to finally study some solutions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. , p. 65
National Category
Mechanical Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-209908OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-209908DiVA, id: diva2:1115050
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Available from: 2017-06-26 Created: 2017-06-26 Last updated: 2017-06-26Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
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  • Other style
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Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
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  • Other locale
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Output format
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