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Prediktion av betalningar i spelet ManagerZone: En regressionsanalys i syfte att prediktera spelares kommande betalningar
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Optimization and Systems Theory.
KTH, School of Engineering Sciences (SCI), Mathematics (Dept.), Optimization and Systems Theory.
2017 (Swedish)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesisAlternative title
Prediction of payments in the game ManagerZone : A regression analysis with the purpose of predicting future payments (English)
Abstract [sv]

Detta kandidatexamensarbete inom matematisk statistik och industriell ekonomi undersöker vilka faktorer som är statistiskt signifikanta för att prediktera kommande betalningar i spelet ManagerZone. Undersökningen gjordes med hjälp av multipel linjär regression på data tillhandahållen av företaget Power Challenge, vilka utvecklar och förlägger spelet ManagerZone. Resultatet av regressionsanalysen visade att det fanns ett samband mellan kommande betalningar och tidigare gjorda betalningar. Tidsperspektivet visade sig ha stor relevans, där tidsperioder närmare önskad prediktionsperiod hade större påverkan. Vidare hade de externa fotbollshändelserna Europa- samt Världsmästerskapen ingen statistisk signifikans på kommande betalningar. Därefter diskuterades freemium-modellen och dess egenskaper, vilken är lik den affärsmodell som Power Challenge tillämpar. Diskussionen fastslog att balansen mellan bas- och premiumerbjudandets innehåll, enkelheten att gå från icke-betalande till betalande användare samt förståelsen för premiumerbjudandets värde ar viktiga aspekter för en lyckad applicering av modellen.

Abstract [en]

This bachelor thesis in mathematical statistics and industrial engineering and management examines which factors that are statistically significant for prediction of future payments in the game ManagerZone. The study was performed using multiple linear regression based on data provided by the company Power Challenge, who develops and publishes the game ManagerZone. The result of the regression analysis showed that there was a relationship between future payments and previously made payments. The time perspective was shown to have great relevance, where time periods closer to the prediction period had a greater impact. Furthermore, the external factors European and World Championships in football had no statistical significance on future payments. Thereafter the freemium model and its traits were discussed. The discussion concurred that the balance between the base and the premium offer's content, the simplicity of converting from a non-paying user to a paying user as well as the comprehension for the premium offer's value are important aspects for having a successful application of the model. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017.
Series
TRITA-MAT-K ; 2017:19
National Category
Computational Mathematics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-209753OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-209753DiVA, id: diva2:1114076
External cooperation
Power Challenge
Subject / course
Applied Mathematics and Industrial Economics
Educational program
Master of Science in Engineering - Industrial Engineering and Management
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2017-06-22 Created: 2017-06-22 Last updated: 2017-06-28Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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