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Understanding Individuals' Learning and Decision Processes in a Changing Environment by Using Panel Data
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics. Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Department of Infrastructure and Geomatic Engineering.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5961-5008
2017 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

When a new transport service is introduced, people have to learn and familiarize themselves with the new service before they decide to adopt it. These processes are developed over time, thus produce dynamics in individuals’ behavioural responses towards the service. This affects the demand of the new service, thus affect revenues. Available studies have examined the factors influencing these responses from microeconomic perspectives. The influence of the theory-based subjective factors has not been examined empirically. Understanding these would assist transport and urban planners to design a better marketing strategy to increase the market share of the new service. A change in seasons affect individuals’ activity-travel decisions, thus produce dynamics in activitytravel patterns in different seasons. Individuals’ constraints, in a form of mandatory activities (working/studying), are influencing individuals’ decisions to participate in day-to-day nonmandatory activities (leisure and routine activities). The interdependency between travel demand, time allocation and mode choice that considers interactions between mandatory and non-mandatory activities, in different seasons is less explored. Understanding these would assist transport planners and operators to manage travel demand strategies across different seasons of the year and provide better transportation systems for all individuals. This thesis includes five papers. Paper I explores individuals’ characteristics of the quick-response and the adopters of the new public transport (PT) service and examines the temporal effects. Paper II investigates the subjective factors influencing a quick-response to the new PT service by proposing a modified attitude-behaviour framework. Paper III and IV analyse the effects of seasonal variations and individuals’ constraints on their day-to-day activity-travel decisions and patterns. Paper V analyses the attrition and fatigue in the two-week travel diary panel survey instrument.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm, Sweden: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2017. , p. 26
Series
TRITA-TSC-PHD ; 17-001
Keywords [en]
Behavioural responses, seasons, panel data, travel diary, activity-travel pattern, theory of planned behaviour, space-time constraint, changing environment, tram, Stockholm
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics Social Sciences Interdisciplinary Economics Applied Psychology Social Psychology
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-203985ISBN: 978-91-87353-97-0 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-203985DiVA, id: diva2:1084022
Public defence
2017-04-18, F3, Lindstedtsvägen 26, KTH, Stockholm, 14:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

QC 20170323

Available from: 2017-03-23 Created: 2017-03-23 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Observing dynamic behavioural responses due to the extension of a tram line by using panel survey
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Observing dynamic behavioural responses due to the extension of a tram line by using panel survey
2016 (English)In: Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, ISSN 0965-8564, E-ISSN 1879-2375, Vol. 86, p. 78-95Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Using a four-wave panel survey of individuals' trips and psychological attributes collected among residents along a new tram line extension in the city of Stockholm, Sweden, this study aims to investigate factors that determine the individuals' learning and decision-making processes in using a new transport option. This includes investigating which group of travellers have used the new tram extension earlier than others, and integrated the tram extension as a part of their daily travel patterns. This paper also describes the design and construction of the four-wave panel data collection, which was collected from two weeks before and up to seven months after the opening of the new option. Descriptive analysis shows that within a seven-month period, 79% of the respondents tried the new tram extension but only 14.9% of them adopted the new option as their daily travel mode. During the observed period, about 49.3% of the respondents migrated between travel modes for non-discretionary trips. Further multivariate analysis shows that middle-income travellers and travellers who owned car(s) used the new tram extension earlier than others. The effect of past experience on the current use of the tram extension on a day-to-day basis was also examined by using a mixed logit model with panel data. The purpose of the model is to examine whether individuals' daily experiences with the new tram extension that result from repeated previous choices would affect their decisions to maintain using the new option in subsequent waves.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2016
Keywords
Four-wave panel survey, Individual learning processes, New tram service, Sweden, Time-scale responses
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-187198 (URN)10.1016/j.tra.2016.02.005 (DOI)000374354800005 ()2-s2.0-84959364517 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20160518

Available from: 2016-05-18 Created: 2016-05-18 Last updated: 2017-11-30Bibliographically approved
2. Subjective Factors Influencing Individual's Response to a New Public Transport Service
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Subjective Factors Influencing Individual's Response to a New Public Transport Service
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The timing and nature of people’s responses can be expected to vary when a new element enter their environment. For example, when an individual is provided with a new or modified transport service. This time-scale of behavioural responses will affect the patronage of, and short- and long-term demands on the new service over time. Understanding the underlying factors that influence an individual’s response over time to a new or modified transport service would enable us to identify trigger factors that make the new service attractive from an individual’s point of view. Chatterjee (2001) and Douglas (2003) argued that motives other than instrumental factors related to public transport use, such as attitudes, awareness, travel habits and learning processes, can influence individual responses over time to changes in the travel environment. Unfortunately, despite their importance, there have been few studies that examined this argument empirically. To address this research gap, this paper aims to investigate the influences of subjective factors on individuals’ responses to the introduction of a modified public transport (PT) service over time by proposing and testing an alternative model that modifies the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) model framework. This paper also aims to investigate the behavioural change in terms of attitudes and perceptions on individuals’ resources and constraints in using a modified PT service over time after its introduction. The case study involves the new extension of a tram line connecting the suburbs of Alvik and Solna Centrum in Stockholm, Sweden. Four waves of a panel survey were conducted with 96 individuals who lived along the new service, from just before the new service was introduced and until seven months after its introduction. A structural equation modelling technique was used to estimate the relationships between behavioural constructs and panel data, then incorporate them into a discrete choice model. The results show that intention influences individual’s quick-response choice. The panel analysis shows that past behaviour in using the new service influenced current behaviour, and that perceived walking distance in using the service consistently influenced the frequency of using the new service over time.

Keywords
Time-scale responses, subjective factors, hybrid choice model, panel survey, tram, Stockholm
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics Applied Psychology Social Psychology Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
Transport Science; Planning and Decision Analysis
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-203982 (URN)
Note

QC 20170323

Available from: 2017-03-21 Created: 2017-03-21 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
3. Examining the effects of out-of-home and in-home constraints on leisure activity participation in different seasons of the year
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Examining the effects of out-of-home and in-home constraints on leisure activity participation in different seasons of the year
2016 (English)In: Transportation, ISSN 0049-4488, E-ISSN 1572-9435, p. 1-25Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Using multi-day, multi-period travel diaries data of 56 days (four waves of two-week diaries) for 67 individuals in Stockholm, this study aims to examine the effects of out-of-home and in-home constraints (e.g. teleworking, studying at home, doing the laundry, cleaning and taking care of other household member[s]) on individuals’ day-to-day leisure activity participation decisions in four different seasons. This study also aims to explore the effects of various types of working schedules (fixed, shift, partial- and full-flexible) on individuals’ decisions to participate in day-to-day leisure activities. A pooled model (56 days) and wave-specific models (14 days in each wave) are estimated by using dynamic ordered Probit models. The effects of various types of working schedules are estimated by using 28 days of two waves’ data. The results show that an individual’s leisure activity participation decision is significantly influenced by out-of-home work durations but not influenced by in-home constraints, regardless of any seasons. Individuals with shift working hours engage less in day-to-day leisure activities than other workers’ types in both spring and summer seasons. The thermal indicator significantly affects individuals’ leisure activity participation decisions during the autumn season. Individuals exhibit routine behaviour characterized by repeated decisions in participating in day-to-day leisure activities that can last up to 14 days, regardless of any seasons.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer-Verlag New York, 2016
Keywords
Dynamic ordered Probit model, Leisure activity participation, Panel data, Seasons, Space-time constraints, Stockholm, Transportation, Leisure activities, Ordered probit model, Time constraints, Civil engineering
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics Economics Occupational Health and Environmental Health
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-195970 (URN)10.1007/s11116-016-9717-3 (DOI)000389833900004 ()2-s2.0-84975478169 (Scopus ID)
Note

QC 20161111

Available from: 2016-11-11 Created: 2016-11-10 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
4. Understanding Seasonal Variation in Individual's Activity Participation and Trip Generation by Using Four Consecutive Two-Week Travel Diary
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Understanding Seasonal Variation in Individual's Activity Participation and Trip Generation by Using Four Consecutive Two-Week Travel Diary
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This paper explores the interactions between travel demand, time allocation and mode choice in different seasons by jointly modeling the work and/or study, routine and leisure activity-travel engagements of 67 individuals in Stockholm, Sweden. A longitudinal panel two-week travel diary data collected in four consecutive waves over a span of seven months period that covers all four different seasons; autumn, winter, spring and summer, were analysed by using simultaneous Tobit models. The model was applied to explore the interactions among each activity-travel indicator, and individuals’ unique characteristics and endogeneity in activity-travel engagements between different seasons were also considered in the model system. The results of models reveal clear trade-offs between mandatory activities (work and/or study) and non-mandatory activities (routine and leisure), regardless of any seasons, although the magnitudes vary between seasons. There is also a positive mutual endogeneity relationship between number of trips and activity duration within the same activity type. The trade-offs between work and/or study trips towards routine and leisure trips are larger in winter and spring respectively, than in other seasons. It is also found that mode effects on travel time for conducting mandatory activity are much larger in spring than in other seasons. However, the effects of public transport and slow modes on travel time for leisure activities are much larger in summer than in other seasons.

Keywords
Four-wave panel data, activity-travel pattern, seasonal variation, simultaneous Tobit model, Stockholm, Sweden
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics Economics Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Research subject
Transport Science; Planning and Decision Analysis; Civil and Architectural Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-203979 (URN)
Note

QC 20170323

Available from: 2017-03-21 Created: 2017-03-21 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved
5. Attrition and Fatigue in a Four Waves of Two-Week Travel Diary: A Case Study in Stockholm, Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Attrition and Fatigue in a Four Waves of Two-Week Travel Diary: A Case Study in Stockholm, Sweden
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This paper describes a four-wave panel survey design and implementation collected on individual level, consisting of three survey’s instrument namely, self-reported two-week travel diary, on-line psychological questionnaire, and self-reported mental map-related questions. The panel survey is built with the aim to examine individuals’ behavioural changes when a new tram extension line in western sub-urban areas of Stockholm, Sweden, was introduced in October 2013. The survey duration took approximately seven months’ period and the data collected covers all four different seasons of the year, which make it wealth of information. The analysis of attrition and fatigue was done on the two-week travel diary survey instrument only. It is found that the overall attrition rate is 34.3% of the total participants (102 individuals) in the Wave 1 survey, which is considered large. The attrition rate between consecutive waves, however, is considered low which is within the range of 7% to 10%. Based on the binary logit models, there are no systematic tendencies of the dropouts’ characteristics from wave to wave to be found, indicating attrition is purely random. There is no correlation between immobile days and missing trips per day are to be found between-waves. The results of the binary logit model on missing trip show that personal attributes, temporal factors (e.g. weekdays and waves) and travel characteristics (e.g. home-based trip, trip purpose, travel distance and number of inter-modal transfers) significantly affect the missing trip but no indication of fatigue appears.

Keywords
Panel survey, travel diary, attrition, fatigue, logit model, tram, Stockholm
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics Social Sciences Interdisciplinary Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Research subject
Transport Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-203980 (URN)
Note

QC 20170323

Available from: 2017-03-21 Created: 2017-03-21 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved

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