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Evaluating the impact of waiting time uncertainty on passengers´decisions
KTH, School of Architecture and the Built Environment (ABE), Transport Science, System Analysis and Economics.
2013 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Service reliability is one of the main factors influencing public transport level of

service and, thus, passengers’ satisfaction. Public transport services are subject to

various sources of uncertainty related to traffic conditions, public transport operations

and passenger demand. Passengers are able to form their perception of trip attributes

and service reliability through accumulating experiences of repetitive travel choices.

Perceived service reliability can be improved either by increasing the ground-truth

service reliability (e.g. introduce exclusive bus lanes, control strategies etc.) or by

providing real time information (RTI) to passengers. However, RTI prediction

schemes might not be perfectly accurate and thus, passengers might be able to account

for the reliability of the provided information as well.

The learning mechanism of individuals becomes, as a result, an important

component in Dynamic Transit Assignment Models (DTAM) which enables

accounting for how perceived reliability of service and the provided information

evolves, through iterative network loading.

This thesis provided the modeling framework for passengers’ perception of

reliability and its effects on decision making with respect to path choice. Within-day

effect is represented through the incorporation of scheduling constraints, while

passengers’ learning mechanism accounts for updates in their expectations and the

perceived level of information credibility in the day-to-day context.

The proposed model was applied to Stockholm’s rapid transit network which was

simulated in BusMezzo, an agent-based public transport assignment model. The

application used the real-world timetables, vehicle schedules and RTI prediction

scheme. Passengers’ learning function was analysed under various specifications

which corresponded to different levels of adaptation.

The results highlight the importance of capturing service uncertainty and the

credibility associated with alternative information sources, while they stress the need

for empirical estimation and validation of the proposed model. This study also

provides the framework for future evaluation of measures which aim to improve

service reliability.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013.
Series
TSC-MT ; 13-018
Keywords [en]
perceived reliability, uncertainty, waiting time, day-to-day learning, information, credibility, TAM
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-203123OAI: oai:DiVA.org:kth-203123DiVA, id: diva2:1080977
Available from: 2017-03-13 Created: 2017-03-13

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
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Output format
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