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Water Balance and Level Change of Lake Babati, Tanzania: Sensitivity to Hydroclimatic Forcings
Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.;Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden..
Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.;Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden..
Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.;Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.;Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Urban & Rural Dev, Box 7012, SE-75007 Uppsala, Sweden..
Uppsala University, Disciplinary Domain of Science and Technology, Earth Sciences, Department of Earth Sciences, LUVAL.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0835-8897
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2016 (English)In: Water, ISSN 2073-4441, E-ISSN 2073-4441, Vol. 8, no 12, article id 572Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We develop and present a novel integrated water balance model that accounts for lake watergroundwater interactions, and apply it to the semi-closed freshwater Lake Babati system, Northern Tanzania, East Africa. The model was calibrated and used to evaluate the lake level sensitivity to changes in key hydro-climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation, humidity and cloudiness. The lake response to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) output on possible future climate outcomes was evaluated, an essential basis in understanding future water security and flooding risk in the region. Results show high lake level sensitivity to cloudiness. Increased focus on cloud fraction measurement and interpretation could likely improve projections of lake levels and surface water availability. Modelled divergent results on the future (21st century) development of Lake Babati can be explained by the precipitation output variability of CMIP5 models being comparable to the precipitation change needed to drive the water balance model from lake dry-out to overflow; this condition is likely shared with many other East African lake systems. The developed methodology could be useful in investigations on change-driving processes in complex climatedrainage basinlake systems, which are needed to support sustainable water resource planning in data scarce tropical Africa.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 8, no 12, article id 572
Keyword [en]
Lake Babati, water balance, lake level sensitivity, cloudiness, hydroclimatic forcings, East Africa
National Category
Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-316449DOI: 10.3390/w8120572ISI: 000392480200025OAI: oai:DiVA.org:uu-316449DiVA, id: diva2:1077864
Funder
Sida - Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, SWE-2011-066 2015-000032 51170071 2239
Available from: 2017-03-01 Created: 2017-03-01 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved

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