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Forecast design at GE Healthcare Europe: design of the process for the unit production forecast
2006 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Predicting customer demand is the key factor to achieve excellence in supplychain performance (Rick Hoole & Shrunti Mandana, 2005). When businesses become more and more competitive, excellence in the supply chain turns into a prerequisite for survival. Making predictions of the future is seldom easy and is dependent on gained experience from historical events – events of either qualitative or quantitative character. A forecasting process needs to be in place to point the direction where to seek inputs and how to evaluate them making the most accurate prediction. This paper is about designing a forecasting process for the creation of a production unit forecast for the European region. Protein Separation - Sales Support Europe (PS-SSE) is a support function within one of the businesses of GE Healthcare and is responsible for the creation of the production unit forecast for the European region. In the paper the empirical study showed an existing process highly dependent on qualitative inputs from senior forecasters due to lack of good- quality inputs from quantitative sources. The process wasn't defined or recorded which led to that experience from past judgments were lost and was a reason to inconsistent usage of source data. The paper has identified the need for tracking new sources such as net demand, gross demand and prospect development. Together with budget data these sources has shown to provide vital information in the forecasting process. The paper provides information how the sources finds their way into the forecast and also gives measures for evaluating their quality. Simplicity, accuracy, traceability and stability have been pointed out as important guidelines throughout the design of the forecasting process. Understanding has been weighted to complexity and graphical presentation is emphasized for the presentations. Scattered source data are brought together so that cross-calculations between different source data can be carried out. The calculated values together with other vital input are lined-up and presented for the forecaster at one place. Reviews are a cornerstone in a forecasting process and without them the forecaster is blindfolded in his attempt improving the existing process. In the paper suggestions for different areas of reviews been suggested, not only for the final forecast and not always issued by PS-SSE.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Keyword [en]
Technology, Forecast Design, Forecasing, Forecast process, Demand, planning
Keyword [sv]
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-59378ISRN: LTU-EX--06/223--SELocal ID: fe95eaff-0914-4eb1-978e-38005482b707OAI: diva2:1032765
Subject / course
Student thesis, at least 30 credits
Educational program
Industrial and Management Engineering, master's level
Validerat; 20101217 (root)Available from: 2016-10-04 Created: 2016-10-04Bibliographically approved

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