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Determinants of regional-international tourist attraction among the member countries of ECO
2009 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Tourism is widely believed to be the most rapidly growing industry in both developing and developed countries, consider tourism as one means for creating new jobs and reducing unemployment in different regions. The ECO region (Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Kirghizstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan) is geographically vast and well endowed with potential economic resources in different fields/sectors. Yet, this inherent potential does not manifest itself in the form of reasonable levels of economic and social development in the ECO countries as a group. In this study we examined the impacts of different variables on tourism flow between the founders of the ECO organization (Iran, Turkey and Pakistan). We used a panel data gravity specification for this region. We stayed focus on regionalization in tourism attraction among the member countries of ECO of how they can affect tourism attraction and economic indicators (GDP, Exchange rate and etc.). Having applied Panel Data, we estimate the model for a number of variables, which stands for the three countries of the ECO region in six cases over the period 1985-2005. Case 1 that is defined by Dum1 emphasizes on the unity of the three major countries of the ECO region (Iran, Turkey and Pakistan). Case 2 is defined by Dum2 to express on Turkey as the most successful ECO member in tourist attraction. Dum3 was chosen as case 3 for Iran to indicate this country as a neighboring country with Turkey and Pakistan and being a more attractive country in the field of eco, ethic and heritage tourism. Dum1 was devoted to case 4 to focus on being the members of ECO and the economical structural similarity by using the Dummy variable which has been multiplied to the Linder's coefficient. In the cases of 5 and 6 the effect of economical structural similarity and being member of ECO were analyzed simultaneously for Turkey and Iran using a value obtained by multiplying Linder coefficient to dum2 and dum3 respectively. The estimated results expressed that the dissimilarity in the economical structure and the distance have a negative effect on tourism attractions between the ECO member countries. The obtained results of the estimation of the gravity model analyses a bilateral estimation in the trade and tourism industry between two countries. According to the gravity model for international trade, the amount of trade and the tourism flow between two countries is explained by their economic size (GDP), population (openness), geographical distance and a set of variables as the exchange rate which was carried out in this research. More specifically, the amount of trade between two countries is assumed to increase in their sizes, as measured by their national incomes and their GDPs, and decrease in the cost of transport, as measured by the distance between their capitals or economic centers. The random effect in the six cases of the research expresses the significance of the unity among the countries in the ECO region. Number of tourist arrivals in the ECO region clarifies their success towards their unity and the high range of potential in attracting tourists, so on this theoretical basis it can be concluded that the union ship among the ECO members were positively effective at the "95" confidence level. The GDP variable showed a positive and significant effect on tourism arrivals among the countries of ECO. As a rule, the more the GDP of a country increases, they achieve more revenue and income, so civilians can easily take trips, but as their GDP increases, it causes problems in the bilateral tourism flow. This variable also defined the amount of income and welfare among the ECO region along with the revenue and the facilities. In despite of the positive effect of GDP, the member countries of the ECO region seem to have no economical similarities between them. If the ECO member countries could be able to raise a union ship towards their economical and structural similarities they can surly manage to reduce the lacking in their bilateral tourist flow. In respect to the estimations, distance ought to be another affecting variable in the bilateral tourist arrival among the countries of the ECO region, obviously the shorter the distance is between the destinations, the more incoming tourists they have, as the distance gets longer, the less tourist arrivals they might have, that’s because the tourist wont have enough motivation to take a trip to the far distance countries. This phenomenon even causes trouble for the countries which have a lack in their transportation infrastructure. Therefore, according to the theoretical estimation, the obtained results of the distance occurred negative effect between the member ship countries of ECO, the confidence level of the negative effect was "%95". The dummy variables which were estimated in this research indicate the unity between the member countries of ECO, in regards to their union ship they have increased their tourist attractions and they have also showed themselves very successful in the bilateral tourist arrivals. The estimated results expressed that the dissimilarity in the economic structure and the distance have a negative effect on tourism attractions between the ECO member countries. The dummy variables (1, 2, and 3) were laid in the model to emphasis on the presence of the ECO member countries and their effect on the tourism industry which the results were obtained significantly positive among all the members in the confidence level of "%95". Due to the economic dissimilarities among the member countries of ECO, the Linder's coefficient which expresses the economic demand similarity between the countries, were multiplied to the dummy variables (1, 2and 3) in order to reduce the dissimilarity lacking among the members. The estimation of results obtained completely significant effects on this aspect and it proves, as the ECO regions get close to the standard economical infrastructures, the more the successful they become in the field of sustainable tourism development. The important aspect to consider is that the sustainable tourism development at the ECO region requires a consistent approach at national levels in order to implement the necessary partnership between the member ship countries of ECO, the central government and the private sectors. The high lighted issue is that regional tourism development objectives and national strategic objectives must also complement each other, the lacking in the economic similarities in this region should not stop the countries from their major aim of cooperating with each other and this does not mean that all the their trading flows should be put an end to it.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Keyword [en]
Social Behaviour Law, Regional tourism, International tourism, Gravity model, Panel, data
Keyword [sv]
Samhälls-, beteendevetenskap, juridik
URN: urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-50239ISRN: LTU-PB-EX--09/018--SELocal ID: 7820a4fd-42f1-49a4-b1a2-6afdabb9a721OAI: diva2:1023596
Subject / course
Student thesis, at least 30 credits
Educational program
Business Administration, master's level
Validerat; 20101217 (root)Available from: 2016-10-04 Created: 2016-10-04Bibliographically approved

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