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Microsimulation Models for Disaster Policy Making
Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
2005 (Engelska)Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Two executable simulation models for answering policy questions were designed and implemented. The first for a flood management case, and the second for a disease transmission case that is currently underway. The flood simulation model differs from earlier natural disaster simulation models in several respects. It represents explicitly the geographical location and the economic strength of each household. It is also equipped with a graphical user interface, making it possible to design policies interactively, and to test their outcomes. If policy options are compared, the simulation results can automatically be transformed into decision trees. The flood simulation model shows that a micro-level representation makes it possible to investigate the distributional effects of policy changes. Novel features of the disease transmission model include the use of (anonymized) data representing nine million individuals, the inclusion of important parts of the contact patterns, and the explicit representation of places. The disease transmission model shows that the incorporation of social structure allows for a more realistic representation of disease spread than do models that assume homogenous mixing. Using this model, it is possible to conduct experiments of significant policy relevance, such as investigating the initial growth of an epidemic on a real-world network. Together, the two cases demonstrate the usefulness of a spatially explicit micro-level representation for policy simulation models in the area of disaster management.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Kista: Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap (tills m KTH) , 2005.
Serie
Report Series / Department of Computer & Systems Sciences, ISSN 1101-8526
Nyckelord [en]
Microsimulation, Policy Making, Disaster Management
Nationell ämneskategori
Datavetenskap (datalogi)
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525ISBN: 91-7155-076-3 (tryckt)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-525DiVA: diva2:195024
Disputation
2005-05-31, sal B, Forum, Isafjordsgatan 39, Kista, 10:00
Opponent
Handledare
Tillgänglig från: 2005-05-10 Skapad: 2005-05-10Bibliografiskt granskad
Delarbeten
1. Spatial and Dynamic Modelling of Flood Management Policies in the Upper Tisza
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Spatial and Dynamic Modelling of Flood Management Policies in the Upper Tisza
2003 (Engelska)Rapport (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

Flood management policy has been the subject of an international joint research

project with the Upper Tisza in Hungary as its pilot study area. Design specications

for a geographically explicit simulation model are presented. Potential flood

management policies, based on surveys and interviews with stakeholders, are presented.

Some experiments on an executable prototype of the simulation model are

also reported on, where the consequences of flood management policies are investigated.

Focus has been on nancial policy measures, mainly insurance. Besides

more traditional evaluation of policy scenarios, the model incorporates adaptive

optimisation functionality. The report incorporates three contributions:

1. the insurance policy issue in Hungary is framed in the broader context of flood

management

2. the structuring of a flood risk policy model, capable of simulating flood failures

and estimating the economic consequences

3. reports from policy experiments performed on the implemented prototype

flood risk policy model

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Laxenburg: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2003. 39 s.
Serie
Interim report / International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 03-002
Nationell ämneskategori
Annan data- och informationsvetenskap
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23860 (URN)
Anmärkning

Part of urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525

Tillgänglig från: 2005-05-10 Skapad: 2005-05-10 Senast uppdaterad: 2014-09-30Bibliografiskt granskad
2. Simulation of Three Competing Flood Management Strategies: A Case Study
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Simulation of Three Competing Flood Management Strategies: A Case Study
2002 (Engelska)Ingår i: Applied Simulation and Modelling: Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference / [ed] L. Ubertini, Anaheim: Acta Press , 2002Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

We argue that integrated catastrophe models are useful for policy decisions, for which a large degree of uncertainty is a natural ingredient. Recently, much attention has been given to the financial management of natural disasters. This article describes the results of a case study performed in northeastern Hungary where different flood management strategies have been explored and compared using an integrated catastrophe model. The area used for the pilot study is the Palad-Csecsei basin (the Pilot basin) where 4 621 persons live. The Pilot basin is located in the Upper Tisza region. An executable and geographically explicit model has been developed, linking hydrological, geographical, financial, and social data. The outcomes of the policy simulations are represented at different granularity-levels; the individual, the aggregated (entire basin), and the governmental.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Anaheim: Acta Press, 2002
Nyckelord
flood-management, catastrophe, simulation, insurance, integrated models, risk
Nationell ämneskategori
Systemvetenskap, informationssystem och informatik med samhällsvetenskaplig inriktning
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23861 (URN)0-88986-334-2 (ISBN)
Konferens
IASTED International Conference on Applied Simulation and Modelling, June 25 – 28, 2002, Crete, Greece
Tillgänglig från: 2005-05-10 Skapad: 2005-05-10 Senast uppdaterad: 2014-10-01Bibliografiskt granskad
3. MicroWorlds as a Tool for Policy Making
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>MicroWorlds as a Tool for Policy Making
2001 (Engelska)Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

The Hungarian government is experiencing escalating costs for ood mitigation

measures and for economical compensation to victims. In a joint

research project between the International Institute of Applied System Analysis

(IIASA) in Austria, Computer and System Science Department (DSV)

in Sweden, and the Hungarian Academy of Science, the ooding problem of

Upper Tisza in Hungary is investigated. A catastrophe simulation model has

been implemented, where dierent policy options are tested and evaluated.

We investigate how the willingness to buy insurance aects the results on

the macro-level and on the micro-level.

Nationell ämneskategori
Annan data- och informationsvetenskap
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23862 (URN)
Konferens
1st International Workshop on Cognitive Research With Microworlds
Tillgänglig från: 2005-05-10 Skapad: 2005-05-10 Senast uppdaterad: 2014-11-06Bibliografiskt granskad
4. Applying the Consumat Model to Flood Management Policies
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Applying the Consumat Model to Flood Management Policies
2003 (Engelska)Ingår i: Agent-based simulation, 2003Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

The number and severity of weather related catastrophes is

increasing. Economic losses from these catastrophes are

escalating, mainly as a result of concentration of assets and

population in high-risk areas. How to deal with these

economic liabilities in a fair way at the level of the individual

property owners is the focus of our research.

As a case study we choose the Tisza, a river in Hungary that

flows through one of the poorest agricultural regions of

Europe that frequently floods. The use of a simulation model

for evaluating alternative flood management policies is a

natural choice, since it is impossible to predict the time,

location and magnitude of a flood; historical data is of limited

use when looking at the outcome of future policies. The

behaviour of the river and the financial consequences are

simulated on a year-by-year basis.

Here we have extended the simulation model by using the

Consumat approach to model the individual property owners.

We compare the results with respect to wealth distribution in

the case of Consumat agents and simple (non-Consumat)

agents. In the Consumat case, the results show that system is

more dynamic and more realistic.

Nyckelord
Agents, Psychological Models of Decision Making, Wealth Distribution, Catastrophe Modelling, Flooding
Nationell ämneskategori
Annan data- och informationsvetenskap
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23863 (URN)
Konferens
Agent-based simulation (Montpellier, 2003)
Anmärkning

Part of urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525

Tillgänglig från: 2005-05-10 Skapad: 2005-05-10 Senast uppdaterad: 2014-10-14Bibliografiskt granskad
5. Multi-Criteria Decision-Making of Policy Strategies with Public-Private Re-Insurance Systems
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Multi-Criteria Decision-Making of Policy Strategies with Public-Private Re-Insurance Systems
2004 Ingår i: Risk Decision and Policy, Vol. 9, nr 1, 23-45 s.Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23864 (URN)
Anmärkning
Part of urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525Tillgänglig från: 2005-05-10 Skapad: 2005-05-10Bibliografiskt granskad
6. Consensus by Simulation: A Flood Model for Participatory Policy Making
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Consensus by Simulation: A Flood Model for Participatory Policy Making
Manuskript (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23865 (URN)
Anmärkning
Part of urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525Tillgänglig från: 2005-05-10 Skapad: 2005-05-10 Senast uppdaterad: 2010-01-13Bibliografiskt granskad
7. MicroPox: A Large-Scale and Spatially Explicit Microsimulation Model for Smallpox Planning
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>MicroPox: A Large-Scale and Spatially Explicit Microsimulation Model for Smallpox Planning
2005 (Engelska)Ingår i: The Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Health Sciences Simulation / [ed] V. Ingalls, San Diego, Calif., 2005, 70-76 s.Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Refereegranskat)
Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
San Diego, Calif.: , 2005
Nationell ämneskategori
Annan data- och informationsvetenskap
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23866 (URN)
Konferens
International Conference on Health Sciences Simulation
Anmärkning

Part of urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525

Tillgänglig från: 2005-05-10 Skapad: 2005-05-10 Senast uppdaterad: 2014-10-14Bibliografiskt granskad
8. The Functional Form of an Epidemic in a Real-World Contact Network
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>The Functional Form of an Epidemic in a Real-World Contact Network
Manuskript (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23867 (URN)
Anmärkning
Part of urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525Tillgänglig från: 2005-05-10 Skapad: 2005-05-10 Senast uppdaterad: 2010-01-13Bibliografiskt granskad

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