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Applying the Consumat Model to Flood Management Policies
Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
2003 (Engelska)Ingår i: Agent-based simulation, 2003Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

The number and severity of weather related catastrophes is

increasing. Economic losses from these catastrophes are

escalating, mainly as a result of concentration of assets and

population in high-risk areas. How to deal with these

economic liabilities in a fair way at the level of the individual

property owners is the focus of our research.

As a case study we choose the Tisza, a river in Hungary that

flows through one of the poorest agricultural regions of

Europe that frequently floods. The use of a simulation model

for evaluating alternative flood management policies is a

natural choice, since it is impossible to predict the time,

location and magnitude of a flood; historical data is of limited

use when looking at the outcome of future policies. The

behaviour of the river and the financial consequences are

simulated on a year-by-year basis.

Here we have extended the simulation model by using the

Consumat approach to model the individual property owners.

We compare the results with respect to wealth distribution in

the case of Consumat agents and simple (non-Consumat)

agents. In the Consumat case, the results show that system is

more dynamic and more realistic.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
2003.
Nyckelord [en]
Agents, Psychological Models of Decision Making, Wealth Distribution, Catastrophe Modelling, Flooding
Nationell ämneskategori
Annan data- och informationsvetenskap
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23863OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-23863DiVA: diva2:195019
Konferens
Agent-based simulation (Montpellier, 2003)
Anmärkning

Part of urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525

Tillgänglig från: 2005-05-10 Skapad: 2005-05-10 Senast uppdaterad: 2014-10-14Bibliografiskt granskad
Ingår i avhandling
1. Microsimulation Models for Disaster Policy Making
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Microsimulation Models for Disaster Policy Making
2005 (Engelska)Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Two executable simulation models for answering policy questions were designed and implemented. The first for a flood management case, and the second for a disease transmission case that is currently underway. The flood simulation model differs from earlier natural disaster simulation models in several respects. It represents explicitly the geographical location and the economic strength of each household. It is also equipped with a graphical user interface, making it possible to design policies interactively, and to test their outcomes. If policy options are compared, the simulation results can automatically be transformed into decision trees. The flood simulation model shows that a micro-level representation makes it possible to investigate the distributional effects of policy changes. Novel features of the disease transmission model include the use of (anonymized) data representing nine million individuals, the inclusion of important parts of the contact patterns, and the explicit representation of places. The disease transmission model shows that the incorporation of social structure allows for a more realistic representation of disease spread than do models that assume homogenous mixing. Using this model, it is possible to conduct experiments of significant policy relevance, such as investigating the initial growth of an epidemic on a real-world network. Together, the two cases demonstrate the usefulness of a spatially explicit micro-level representation for policy simulation models in the area of disaster management.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Kista: Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap (tills m KTH), 2005
Serie
Report Series / Department of Computer & Systems Sciences, ISSN 1101-8526
Nyckelord
Microsimulation, Policy Making, Disaster Management
Nationell ämneskategori
Datavetenskap (datalogi)
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525 (URN)91-7155-076-3 (ISBN)
Disputation
2005-05-31, sal B, Forum, Isafjordsgatan 39, Kista, 10:00
Opponent
Handledare
Tillgänglig från: 2005-05-10 Skapad: 2005-05-10Bibliografiskt granskad

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