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Simulation of Three Competing Flood Management Strategies: A Case Study
Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
2002 (Engelska)Ingår i: Applied Simulation and Modelling: Proceedings of the IASTED International Conference / [ed] L. Ubertini, Anaheim: Acta Press , 2002Konferensbidrag, Publicerat paper (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

We argue that integrated catastrophe models are useful for policy decisions, for which a large degree of uncertainty is a natural ingredient. Recently, much attention has been given to the financial management of natural disasters. This article describes the results of a case study performed in northeastern Hungary where different flood management strategies have been explored and compared using an integrated catastrophe model. The area used for the pilot study is the Palad-Csecsei basin (the Pilot basin) where 4 621 persons live. The Pilot basin is located in the Upper Tisza region. An executable and geographically explicit model has been developed, linking hydrological, geographical, financial, and social data. The outcomes of the policy simulations are represented at different granularity-levels; the individual, the aggregated (entire basin), and the governmental.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Anaheim: Acta Press , 2002.
Nyckelord [en]
flood-management, catastrophe, simulation, insurance, integrated models, risk
Nationell ämneskategori
Systemvetenskap, informationssystem och informatik med samhällsvetenskaplig inriktning
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23861ISBN: 0-88986-334-2 (tryckt)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-23861DiVA: diva2:195017
Konferens
IASTED International Conference on Applied Simulation and Modelling, June 25 – 28, 2002, Crete, Greece
Tillgänglig från: 2005-05-10 Skapad: 2005-05-10 Senast uppdaterad: 2014-10-01Bibliografiskt granskad
Ingår i avhandling
1. Microsimulation Models for Disaster Policy Making
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Microsimulation Models for Disaster Policy Making
2005 (Engelska)Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Two executable simulation models for answering policy questions were designed and implemented. The first for a flood management case, and the second for a disease transmission case that is currently underway. The flood simulation model differs from earlier natural disaster simulation models in several respects. It represents explicitly the geographical location and the economic strength of each household. It is also equipped with a graphical user interface, making it possible to design policies interactively, and to test their outcomes. If policy options are compared, the simulation results can automatically be transformed into decision trees. The flood simulation model shows that a micro-level representation makes it possible to investigate the distributional effects of policy changes. Novel features of the disease transmission model include the use of (anonymized) data representing nine million individuals, the inclusion of important parts of the contact patterns, and the explicit representation of places. The disease transmission model shows that the incorporation of social structure allows for a more realistic representation of disease spread than do models that assume homogenous mixing. Using this model, it is possible to conduct experiments of significant policy relevance, such as investigating the initial growth of an epidemic on a real-world network. Together, the two cases demonstrate the usefulness of a spatially explicit micro-level representation for policy simulation models in the area of disaster management.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Kista: Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap (tills m KTH), 2005
Serie
Report Series / Department of Computer & Systems Sciences, ISSN 1101-8526
Nyckelord
Microsimulation, Policy Making, Disaster Management
Nationell ämneskategori
Datavetenskap (datalogi)
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525 (URN)91-7155-076-3 (ISBN)
Disputation
2005-05-31, sal B, Forum, Isafjordsgatan 39, Kista, 10:00
Opponent
Handledare
Tillgänglig från: 2005-05-10 Skapad: 2005-05-10Bibliografiskt granskad

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http://www.actapress.com/Abstract.aspx?paperId=25426http://people.dsv.su.se/~lisa/version%203%20MAJ-02-Crete.pdf

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Ekenberg, Love
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Systemvetenskap, informationssystem och informatik med samhällsvetenskaplig inriktning

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