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Spatial and Dynamic Modelling of Flood Management Policies in the Upper Tisza
Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap.
2003 (Engelska)Rapport (Refereegranskat)
Abstract [en]

Flood management policy has been the subject of an international joint research

project with the Upper Tisza in Hungary as its pilot study area. Design specications

for a geographically explicit simulation model are presented. Potential flood

management policies, based on surveys and interviews with stakeholders, are presented.

Some experiments on an executable prototype of the simulation model are

also reported on, where the consequences of flood management policies are investigated.

Focus has been on nancial policy measures, mainly insurance. Besides

more traditional evaluation of policy scenarios, the model incorporates adaptive

optimisation functionality. The report incorporates three contributions:

1. the insurance policy issue in Hungary is framed in the broader context of flood

management

2. the structuring of a flood risk policy model, capable of simulating flood failures

and estimating the economic consequences

3. reports from policy experiments performed on the implemented prototype

flood risk policy model

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Laxenburg: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis , 2003. , 39 s.
Serie
Interim report / International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 03-002
Nationell ämneskategori
Annan data- och informationsvetenskap
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-23860OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-23860DiVA: diva2:195016
Anmärkning

Part of urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525

Tillgänglig från: 2005-05-10 Skapad: 2005-05-10 Senast uppdaterad: 2014-09-30Bibliografiskt granskad
Ingår i avhandling
1. Microsimulation Models for Disaster Policy Making
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Microsimulation Models for Disaster Policy Making
2005 (Engelska)Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Two executable simulation models for answering policy questions were designed and implemented. The first for a flood management case, and the second for a disease transmission case that is currently underway. The flood simulation model differs from earlier natural disaster simulation models in several respects. It represents explicitly the geographical location and the economic strength of each household. It is also equipped with a graphical user interface, making it possible to design policies interactively, and to test their outcomes. If policy options are compared, the simulation results can automatically be transformed into decision trees. The flood simulation model shows that a micro-level representation makes it possible to investigate the distributional effects of policy changes. Novel features of the disease transmission model include the use of (anonymized) data representing nine million individuals, the inclusion of important parts of the contact patterns, and the explicit representation of places. The disease transmission model shows that the incorporation of social structure allows for a more realistic representation of disease spread than do models that assume homogenous mixing. Using this model, it is possible to conduct experiments of significant policy relevance, such as investigating the initial growth of an epidemic on a real-world network. Together, the two cases demonstrate the usefulness of a spatially explicit micro-level representation for policy simulation models in the area of disaster management.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Kista: Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap (tills m KTH), 2005
Serie
Report Series / Department of Computer & Systems Sciences, ISSN 1101-8526
Nyckelord
Microsimulation, Policy Making, Disaster Management
Nationell ämneskategori
Datavetenskap (datalogi)
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-525 (URN)91-7155-076-3 (ISBN)
Disputation
2005-05-31, sal B, Forum, Isafjordsgatan 39, Kista, 10:00
Opponent
Handledare
Tillgänglig från: 2005-05-10 Skapad: 2005-05-10Bibliografiskt granskad

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