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Analysis of water resources in the Mahanadi River Basin, India under projected climate conditions
Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK).
2008 (Engelska)Ingår i: Hydrological Processes, ISSN 0885-6087, E-ISSN 1099-1085, Vol. 22, nr 18, s. 3589-3603Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

The paper presents the outcomes of a study conducted to analyse water resources availability and demand in the Mahanadi River Basin in India under climate change conditions. Climate change impact analysis was carried out for the years 2000, 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100, for the months of September and April (representing wet and dry months), at a sub-catchment level. A physically based distributed hydrologic model (DHM) was used for estimation of the present water availability. For future scenarios under climate change conditions, precipitation output of Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCM2) was used as the input data for the DHM. The model results show that the highest increase in peak runoff (38%) in the Mahanadi River outlet will occur during September, for the period 2075-2100 and the maximum decrease in average runoff (32·5%) will be in April, for the period 2050-2075. The outcomes indicate that the Mahanadi River Basin is expected to experience progressively increasing intensities of flood in September and drought in April over the considered years. The sectors of domestic, irrigation and industry were considered for water demand estimation. The outcomes of the analysis on present water use indicated a high water abstraction by the irrigation sector. Future water demand shows an increasing trend until 2050, beyond which the demand will decrease owing to the assumed regulation of population explosion. From the simulated future water availability and projected water demand, water stress was computed. Among the six sub-catchments, the sub-catchment six shows the peak water demand. This study hence emphasizes on the need for re-defining water management policies, by incorporating hydrological response of the basin to the long-term climate change, which will help in developing appropriate flood and drought mitigation measures at the basin level.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
2008. Vol. 22, nr 18, s. 3589-3603
Nyckelord [en]
climate change, distributed hydrologic model, general circulation model, water availability and demand, Mahanadi river basin
Nationell ämneskategori
Klimatforskning Naturgeografi
Forskningsämne
naturgeografi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-17055DOI: 10.1002/hyp.6962OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-17055DiVA, id: diva2:183575
Tillgänglig från: 2009-01-05 Skapad: 2009-01-05 Senast uppdaterad: 2018-01-13Bibliografiskt granskad
Ingår i avhandling
1. Hydro-climatic changes in irrigated world regions
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Hydro-climatic changes in irrigated world regions
2013 (Engelska)Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Understanding of hydro-climatic changes in the world’s river basins is required to ensure future food security. Different regional basins experience different levels of hydro-climatic change depending on the endorheic or exorheic nature of a hydrological basin, along with the climatic conditions and human land and water-use practices, for instance for irrigation. This thesis has analyzed long-term hydro-climatic changes in two main irrigated regions of the world: the Mahanadi River Basin in India and the Aral region in Central Asia. Thesis applies a basin-wise, data-driven water balance-constrained approach to quantifying the hydro-climatic changes, and to distinguish their main drivers in the past century and for future. Results point at human water-use and re-distribution for irrigation within a basin as a major driver of water balance changes, which also affect surface temperature in the region.

Cross-regional comparison focused on the climatically important changes of water, vapor and latent heat fluxes at the land surface, and also on the changes to water resource availability in the landscape. Results show that irrigation- driven changes in evapotranspiration, latent heat fluxes and associated temperature changes at land surface may be greater in regions with small relative irrigation impacts on water availability in the landscape than in regions with severe such impacts. This implies that one cannot from the knowledge about only one aspect of hydro-climatic change simply extrapolate the impact importance of those changes for other types of water changes in a region.

Climate model projections results show lack of consistency in individual GCM performance with regard to temperature and to precipitation, implying difficulties to identify well-performing GCMs with regard to both of these variables in a region. In Aral region, the thesis shows that ensemble mean of different GCM outputs may provide robust projection of future hydro-climate changes.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Stockholm: Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, 2013. s. 30
Serie
Dissertations from the Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, ISSN 1653-7211 ; 36
Nyckelord
Climate change, hydro-climatic change, evapotranspiration, irrigation, water demand, water balance, land-use, water-use, hydrological catchment, Aral Sea, India, Mahanadi River Basin
Nationell ämneskategori
Klimatforskning Naturgeografi
Forskningsämne
naturgeografi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-87921 (URN)978-91-7447-641-5 (ISBN)
Disputation
2013-04-03, Nordenskiöldsalen, Geovetenskapens hus, Svante Arrhenius väg 12, Stockholm, 13:00 (Engelska)
Opponent
Handledare
Forskningsfinansiär
FormasLinnaeus research environment CADICSModelling initiative of the Bert Bolin Centre for Climate ChangeSida - Styrelsen för internationellt utvecklingssamarbeteVetenskapsrådet, 2006-4366
Anmärkning

At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 4: Accepted. Paper 6: Manuscript.

Tillgänglig från: 2013-03-12 Skapad: 2013-02-25 Senast uppdaterad: 2019-12-09Bibliografiskt granskad

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Asokan, Shilpa M.
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