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Application of a structured decision-making process in cryospheric hazard planning: Case study of Bering Glacier surges on local state planning in Alaska
UiT – The Arctic University of Norway, Norway; University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA.
Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.ORCID-id: 0000-0001-6502-9670
Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-0665-1889
University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA; University of Oslo, Norway.
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Antal upphovsmän: 52024 (Engelska)Ingår i: Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, ISSN 1057-9214, E-ISSN 1099-1360, Vol. 31, nr 1-2, artikel-id e1825Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Surging glaciers are glaciers that experience rapidly accelerated glacier flow over a comparatively short period of time. Though relatively rare worldwide, Alaska is home to the largest number of surge-type glaciers globally. However, their impact on the broader socioecological system in the state is both poorly understood and under-researched, which poses a challenge in developing appropriate sustainability decisions in Alaska. We investigated how the surge patterns of the Bering Glacier in Alaska have potentially devastating effects on the local ecological biodiversity of its watershed via a structured decision-making analysis of the different possible consequences. Specifically, this analysis was conducted to explore the various outcomes of a Bering Glacier surge particularly if humans have an increased presence near the glacier due to the area potentially becoming a state park. This work explored the benefits of applying a risk and decision analytical framework in a cryosphere context, to better understand the socioeconomic impact of glacier surges. This is a novel approach in which a decision analysis tool was used to better understand an environmental sustainability challenge, offering an innovative method to support the achievement of the United Nations Sustainability Development Goals in Alaska. We therefore emphasise the need for integrated biophysical and socioeconomic analyses when it comes to understanding glacier hazards. Our research highlights the importance of understanding and researching biophysical changes as well as using a structured decision-making process for complicated hazard planning scenarios, exemplified via glaciated regions in Alaska, in order to create adaptation strategies that are sustainable and encompass the range of possible outcomes.

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2024. Vol. 31, nr 1-2, artikel-id e1825
Nyckelord [en]
cryospheric hazard, decision analysis tool, sensitivity analyses, structured decision-making
Nationell ämneskategori
Ekologi Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser Tvärvetenskapliga studier inom samhällsvetenskap Systemvetenskap, informationssystem och informatik
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-224636DOI: 10.1002/mcda.1825ISI: 001114145500001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85178078475OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-224636DiVA, id: diva2:1821321
Tillgänglig från: 2023-12-20 Skapad: 2023-12-20 Senast uppdaterad: 2024-01-11Bibliografiskt granskad

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Danielson, MatsEkenberg, Love
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Institutionen för data- och systemvetenskap
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Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
EkologiOceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurserTvärvetenskapliga studier inom samhällsvetenskapSystemvetenskap, informationssystem och informatik

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